Two things NFL fans need to know about the current confusing labor discord:
– There will be uninterrupted NFL seasons in 2006 and in 2007.
– There will be a free-agent signing off-season. It might not start Friday as scheduled, depending on the progress of ongoing collective bargaining talks, but it will happen.
Fans would agree with Tennessee Titans coach Jeff Fisher, who said, “I think both sides have way too much to lose to let this thing drag out.”
But fans also won’t be able to tell much difference in the product on the field for the next two seasons.
“There’s a great line from Bobby Jones, `You play the ball where it lies,'” Giants general manager Ernie Accorsi said. “Whatever the rules are, that’s the way you operate.”
No matter how the labor situation unfolds, teams already under next season’s projected salary cap of $95 million will be in better position to sign free agents than teams that have to restructure contracts or cut players to get under the cap. But that’s not a whole lot different from any other year.
Teams significantly above the cap are counting on a last-minute extension of the labor agreement because that would mean the salary cap probably would expand beyond $100 million, leaving more wiggle room.
With no extension, teams above the cap may have to unload valuable players, enhancing the free-agent pool for those who still can afford to pay. However, the specter of no salary cap at all in 2007–supposedly a built-in incentive for both sides to negotiate–poses problems in structuring long-term free-agent contracts.
The Bears, an estimated $17 million below the cap, predict “business as usual,” according to general manager Jerry Angelo. That means they will continue their normal conservative approach, interrupted by occasional pay frenzies to land players such as Muhsin Muhammad or John Tait. Five teams were approximately $20 million above the cap–the Raiders, Chiefs, Jets, Redskins and Broncos–until they recently started unloading. They stand to lose the most if there is no extension.
Five teams are approximately $20 million below the cap–the Vikings, Cardinals, Packers, Browns and 49ers. They stand to gain the most.
It is not likely, however, that the current labor situation, mired under a somewhat artificial Thursday deadline, suddenly will wreak havoc on the league’s balance of power. It is fantasy to think bad teams will cure themselves instantly or good teams will crumble swiftly just because a few rules might change.
The one team with the most interesting looming off-season is San Diego, a team with money and also on the brink of a playoff breakthrough yet gambling with the future of its quarterbacks. Proven Drew Brees is scheduled to become a free agent, leaving unproven Philip Rivers on the spot.
Although Brees is recuperating from shoulder surgery, he is likely to be the best catch of the year for a team like the Dolphins, actively searching for a quarterback.
Losing Brees could tumble the Chargers from potential off-season winners to losers with one autograph.
POSSIBLE WINNERS
1. Vikings: New owner Zygi Wilf claims he will pay quarterback Daunte Culpepper his $6 million bonus due in two weeks, but new coach Brad Childress keeps pointing out Culpepper must rehabilitate from knee surgery. The Vikings’ biggest needs, running backs and offensive line, coincide with big free-agent names–runners Edgerrin James of the Colts, Shaun Alexander of the Seahawks and Jamal Lewis of the Ravens, and offensive linemen LeCharles Bentley of the Saints and Jon Runyan of the Eagles.
2. Packers: Brett Favre has indicated he would like to watch what his team does before deciding whether he will return. He didn’t object out loud about losing star guards Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera last off-season, but he wasn’t celebrating either. New coach Mike McCarthy used to work in New Orleans with Bentley and with defensive end Darren Howard. McCarthy also worked last year in San Francisco, where pass-rushing linebacker Julian Peterson is a free agent.
3. Cardinals: Coach Dennis Green also needs runners and blockers to protect last year’s aging and immobile free-agent quarterback Kurt Warner.
4. Browns: Like the Cardinals, the Browns have lots of money and lots of needs. They tried to get running back Chester Taylor last year from Baltimore and wound up with Reuben Droughns from Denver. Taylor is a free agent, but so is fellow Raven Jamal Lewis, who used to make his living running over the Browns, and general manager Phil Savage knows him well from Baltimore days. Coach Romeo Crennel might have an edge with cornerback Ty Law from their days together in New England.
5. 49ers: The 49ers have many more problems than dollars, so although they might be able to afford a player or two, there is no quick fix for the 32nd-ranked offense and defense.
ON THE LOSER SIDE
1. Raiders: They have put way too much stock into collecting overpriced, big-name players lately, but always find a way to juggle contracts. They have a lot tied up in injured receiver Ronald Curry, for example. They finally seem to be done with disappointing cornerback Charles Woodson. They might be forced to dump quarterback Kerry Collins.
2. Redskins: They may have to jettison linebacker LaVar Arrington, and they are shopping quarterback Patrick Ramsey. Although they play positions of interest to the Bears, neither player seems to create much desire.
3. Broncos: They released running back Mike Anderson, defensive lineman Trevor Pryce and tight end Jeb Putzier on Wednesday. The Broncos have expressed interest in the most visible free agent of all–receiver Terrell Owens (right). But because the market is small and could be getting smaller, they are in no hurry.
4. Jets: They started last week by cutting Law and still are trying to figure out what to do with injured and expensive quarterback Chad Pennington.
5. Chiefs: Former Jets coach Herm Edwards is now in Kansas City, where his cap situation isn’t much better but his alternatives are. The Chiefs no longer need expensive running back Priest Holmes now that they have discovered Larry Johnson.
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dpierson@tribune.com
