On Thursday, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki accepted Washington’s offer to talk about Tehran’s nuclear program–with one condition. There could be no conditions. Iran would not freeze its enrichment of uranium, which the Bush administration had demanded in exchange for bringing the U.S. to the table for negotiations. Cutting through the diplomatic verbiage, what Iran’s really telling the world is: Get lost. We’ll keep enriching uranium and we dare you to stop us.
The Iranians portrayed the U.S. overture as “blackmail,” a “propaganda” ploy that proved the U.S. is not serious about negotiating. But if Iran thinks it can sell the world on the idea that this is an Iran-U.S. showdown, it is delusional.
The demand that Iran curb its apparent lust for nuclear weapons goes well beyond the U.S. The International Atomic Energy Agency has demanded that it freeze its nuclear enrichment program. In its report in late April, the agency’s exasperation could be detected between the lines of all the technical and diplomatic jargon. After three years, the agency said, Iran still hadn’t come clean on its nuclear programs.
For a time it appeared that Russia and China would give Iran an escape route. But that, too, appears to be changing. They have explicitly backed the IAEA. Just a few days ago, China called on Iran to resume full cooperation with the agency to “restore the international community’s confidence in Iran.” Iran can’t simply steam along with its outlaw nuclear program and expect the UN Security Council to look the other way during “negotiations.”
On Thursday, the U.S. reached agreement with Europe, Russia and China on a new package of incentives–and a list of potential sanctions–to persuade the Iranians to stand down. The incentives were reported to include an international effort to assist Iran’s nuclear industry, including guarantees of long-term fuel assurances. If all Iran wanted was nuclear power, as it claims, this would be the best and easiest way to get it.
But Iran has turned aside similar offers in the past. The reasoning then went that without the U.S. at the table, the Iranians wouldn’t trust such a deal. So now the U.S. says it will talk–a deft diplomatic move that has shifted the pressure onto Iran. Tehran has weeks, not months, to decide, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Friday.
Most encouragingly, Russia and China, which have opposed sanctions, are reportedly onboard for some steps to punish Iran if it refuses to halt its enrichment program. It’s still not clear how tough they’re willing to get, since they have billions of dollars in trade with Iran at stake. But the fact that they’re going along, at least at this stage, is a sign that Washington’s surprising decision to offer direct talks with Tehran is paying off.
