Crime statistics don’t always tell the full truth. Homicide numbers are the most reliable; that crime is nearly always reported, and usually leaves a corpse. Conversely, rape figures are less trustworthy; different jurisdictions don’t uniformly define that horrific and usually private crime, which often goes unreported by intimidated or humiliated victims.
But with those caveats in place, growing evidence suggests that this act of violation is on the decline across America. The Washington Post, citing federal crime data, reported Monday that the number of rapes per capita has plunged by more than 85 percent nationally since the 1970s, from 2.8 per 1,000 people in 1979 to 0.4 in 2004.
Last year, reported incidents of rape nationally fell even as other violent offenses (murder included) increased. Chicago, for its part, in 2005 saw the continuation of a two-decade decline in reports of criminal sexual assaults–a category that includes rape as conventionally defined, plus some similar crimes of sexual penetration.
One rape is too many. But the U.S. Justice Department’s National Crime Victimization Survey, which annually asks thousands of Americans about crimes they have experienced, underpins the conclusion that the per-capita rape rate has steadily plummeted. Similarly if less dramatically, the FBI’s aggregation of police reports points to a 1992 peak in rapes actually reported nationwide, with a subsequent 25 percent drop.
Three possible explanations cited by the Post:
– Less lawlessness associated with crack cocaine, plus shifting demographics that leave fewer young people in their most crime-prone years.
– Rapists tend statistically to commit other crimes. Thus imprisoning more robbers, killers and drug dealers has reduced the pool of potential rapists loose on the streets.
– Americans may be more aware of, and more averse to, sexual assault: Women have been taught to avoid unsafe situations, and young people of both genders have been drilled on rules of consent–including “No means no.”
Some advocates for rape victims, at the National Organization for Women and elsewhere, are encouraged by the decline. Others wonder if the scrutiny of accusers’ sexual history in such high-profile cases as that of basketball star Kobe Bryant has caused some victims to stay silent.
But the best news here is that the decline in rape cases likely will continue. The nation’s DNA database holds identifying information on 3 million Americans–a number that grows by 80,000 a month. Depending on where a DNA sample originates, that roster can include convicted criminals, parolees or people who were arrested but not charged.
The size and awesome specificity of that federal database increases the odds that over time more rapists, especially serial offenders, will be identified. That said, the database also creates a dangerous incentive: Many rapists know all about DNA tracing, which could prompt them to eliminate their evidence, their victims, or both.
But the hard work of many protagonists–cops, prosecutors, parents, teachers, advocates for rape awareness and victims’ rights–are driving the numbers in the right direction.
