Once again Lebanon is paying the price for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
For the last 40 years, Lebanon has been the battleground for numerous regional power brokers. Syria, Israel, Iran, the Palestinians and their proxies have used Lebanon to score political points and send messages. Meanwhile, Lebanon continues to bleed. The latest sad escalation is yet another blow to fragile Lebanon that has only recently started to recover from a lengthy civil war and the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the popular former prime minister.
The current dispute, triggered by Hezbollah’s kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers, illustrates the explosive nature in the region. The response of Israel, as the record would indicate, was swift and disproportionately forceful.
For years, the relative tranquility that existed in the region was very artificial. Tension was always high, and only an incident like the recent kidnapping would erupt into a sad reality that may spill over into other countries and threaten regional stability.
Hezbollah, the “Party of God,” emerged in 1982 in response to the Israeli invasion and occupation of parts of southern Lebanon. For 17 years, Hezbollah fought and resisted vigorously until Israel’s withdrawal in 2000.
The Shiites, who historically had no grievance with the Israeli people, were transformed during that period into formidable enemies–representing the resistance against the occupation of their land. Over time, Hezbollah has become the political and military voice of the Shiites, the largest sector among the Lebanese population. Hezbollah is now part of the Shiite crescent that extends from Iran all the way to Lebanon. They are the only heavily armed militia in Lebanon. Their political interest is clearly tied to Tehran (not Beirut), where their economic assistance and political guidance are derived.
Among the political landscape of Lebanon, Hezbollah is disliked by various mainstream political parties. Until recently, all indications suggest Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, their leader, was losing political clout in the country. His political message and strategic interest were viewed as imported and not a true fit for Lebanon. However, the kidnapping incident last week and the subsequent eruption with Israel changed everything.
Israel’s forceful military response has disrupted the political dynamics in Lebanon. The intensity of the Israeli attacks has blanketed the entire country, aiming at Lebanon’s infrastructure, including airports, ports, highways and power plants. Scores of Lebanese civilians have been killed.
This at a time when tourism season was at its peak, with almost 1.6 million tourists expected in Lebanon this summer. Tourism is the main source of revenue for the Lebanese economy. The Lebanese once again are finding themselves a shattered nation that does not seem to get a break. Many of them are rallying behind Hezbollah, which is gaining power and status while the Lebanese army remains weak, ill-equipped and ineffective.
Hezbollah is sadly emerging as the main power broker in Lebanon, and any prolonged conflict could advance the transformation of Lebanon into another Iraq, with far worse consequences. This conflict has crowned Nasrallah as a leader crossed between Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden. An unresolved conflict would invite into Lebanon radicals from around the world and transform the country into a war platform that will be the battleground against Israel. Furthermore, the exodus of Lebanese fed up with the status quo will further contribute to the brain drain and loss of needed talent required to inject growth and prosperity into the Lebanese economy.
Short of an immediate cease-fire, Israel should limit its military attacks to Hezbollah targets. The crippling of the Lebanese infrastructure and the blockade must cease immediately. Helpless Lebanese civilians should not pay for the actions of Hezbollah.
Israel and Lebanon are now both losing dearly. Just like Lebanon, Israel, which depends on tourism, is beginning to feel the financial cost of the conflict. It took Israel years to recover from the impact of the second intifada and the current conflict could prove to be just as costly.
The solution for the border security of Israel is beyond the control of Israel and Lebanon. Lebanon is unable to do the job, and Israel has failed over the years to achieve border tranquility. The solution lies in a regional comprehensive resolution that will define the parameters of coexistence. The gunboat policies seem to bring instant gratification in the short run and regressive results in the long run. Hezbollah, unfortunately, seems to be strengthened and focused after every engagement with Israel.
There are all the ingredients of chaos that could overcome Lebanon. This should not happen and it is definitely not in the interest of Israel to transform Beirut into another Baghdad.
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Raja Kamal is an associate dean at the Harris School for Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago.
