Ken Williams jokes about wanting to “post” one of his veteran starting pitchers, not trade him. Paul Godfrey, the Toronto Blue Jays’ chief operating officer, says he and others were stunned at Boston’s $51.1 million bid for the rights to Japanese ace Daisuke Matsuzaka.
“That’s a ridiculous sum to pay out for the right to bargain,” Godfrey told the Toronto Star. “To me, it makes zero sense.”
Under any circumstances, it looks like a crazy figure to get in the front door. But the Matsuzaka bidding did not happen in a void.
It mushroomed into a boom market because the Seibu Lions right-hander is the lone true No. 1 starter available in the current market.
What isn’t being said is the Red Sox and both New York teams bid more than $30 million for the rights to Matsuzaka because they are not sold on the two best American free-agent starters, Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt. No one really is, although two teams are going to spend a lot of money to take a chance on them.
The Red Sox, Mets and Yankees think it made more sense to spend $20 million a year, or more, on Matsuzaka, than to invest $15 million-plus a year on Zito and Schmidt, who appear to be No. 2 starters, not true dominators. The Cubs, among other teams, believe the value in the pitching market is found in the second tier.
Zito and Schmidt both had front-of-the-rotation stuff a few years ago but aren’t aging especially well. Both have lost a foot or two off their fastballs, and Zito was throwing only in the mid-80s during the playoffs.
Zito has made more starts than any pitcher in the majors the last five years and appears capable of maintaining that consistency.
Schmidt is a little more problematic. He has avoided long stints on the disabled list but has a history of nagging injuries, which worries some clubs.
Matsuzaka, pitched hard by the Lions this year, is a workhorse with great stuff. He’s the same kind of unknown Ichiro Suzuki was before he performed the Rookie of the Year/Most Valuable Player double for Seattle in 2001.
With Matsuzaka joining a starting rotation that includes Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield and Jonathan Papelbon (with Matt Clement in reserve), the Red Sox appear to be a good bet to get back into the playoffs.
Scott Boras, who represents Matsuzaka, and the Red Sox have vowed to keep negotiations quiet. The pitcher visited the U.S. last week, but the only business he did was in Beaverton, Ore., at the Nike headquarters.
Most executives believe Boras would like to sign Matsuzaka for only three or four years. But would Matsuzaka return to Japan rather than sign for five or six years? Probably not.
If the Red Sox wound up giving up $12 million a year for five years, that would be a total commitment of $111.1 million–a little more than $22 million a year.
Yes, that’s a ton of money to pay a pitcher, but Boston will be getting a dominant one, not to mention one who comes with his own revenue stream. Boras told the Boston Globe that the Yankees make about $21 million a year in Japanese advertising and sponsorships because Hideki Matsui plays for them.
Boras probably isn’t the most reliable source on this subject, but if Matsuzaka generated even half that much revenue, he could be a very good investment. He’s definitely a better risk than paying Zito and Schmidt like they are Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens in their primes.
Loophole
The size of Boston’s bid might not have been quite as large if the $51.1 million counted as payroll, which would have made it subject to the luxury tax. But posting fees are considered a business expense and thus aren’t covered.
Godfrey would like to see that changed.
“Obviously, if this is going to take place in the future, there’s a flaw in the whole luxury-tax system,” Godfrey said. “This distorts the economics of the game. It can distort the competitive balance. I’m not saying the Red Sox pulled a fast one. They played by the rules, but . . . there’s a hole in the net.”
You wonder if Godfrey would have been as upset if a team from any division except the American League East had wound up with the rights to Matsuzaka.
“They, obviously, have bottomless pits [of money], but that doesn’t guarantee them winning,” Godfrey said of the Red Sox and Yankees. “Boston spent a lot more than we did last year and didn’t get ahead of us, so, obviously, they’re throwing more money against the wall and hoping some of it sticks. Sooner or later, all they’re going to do is drive the league into making further changes in future collective bargaining.”
In demand
Lou Piniella is a backer of Julio Lugo, who played shortstop for him in Tampa Bay. The presence of 2005 Gold Glover Cesar Izturis would argue that Lugo would be redundant on the Cubs, but sources indicate they are pursuing him, as is Boston.
After being traded to the Dodgers, Lugo played second and third base down the stretch. He is a center field consideration for the Cubs (he played two games in left and one in right this year), but at least one executive believes strongly that he belongs at short.
“Julio Lugo is one of the best shortstops in the game,” Mets GM Omar Minaya said. “I really believe Julio is an excellent defensive shortstop, let alone the fact that he can really hit. Teams are looking at him as a second baseman or whatever, but he’s a major-league shortstop.”
Boston was happy with Alex Gonzalez at short in the first half of last season but found his bat lacking in the second half, when injuries to catcher Jason Varitek and right fielder Trot Nixon proved crippling. Another reason the Red Sox are looking to upgrade at short is that they could wind up with rookie Dustin Pedroia (.191 in 89 at-bats last year) at second base.
Whispers
The Astros and Orioles appear to be the only teams pursuing both Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee. Otherwise, there’s surprisingly little crossover. In the Soriano camp are the Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers and Mets; in the Lee camp, the Giants and Rangers. . . . Once Soriano and Lee are off the market, the Red Sox will begin efforts to deal Manny Ramirez to one of the teams that didn’t get their man. Texas is reportedly a possibility. . . . One reason Toronto makes sense for Frank Thomas: The Rogers Centre has been the second-most favorable AL park for home-run hitters over the last three seasons, behind only U.S. Cellular Field. . . . Four years later, we are getting a demonstration of why Cubs GM Jim Hendry agreed to take free agent Jim Thome to lunch even though he was committed to young first baseman Hee Seop Choi at the time. Thome’s agent was Pat Rooney, now part of Soriano’s team of agents, and the Cubs appear wired into the negotiations.
The guess here is that Zito will wind up reunited with pitching coach Rick Peterson on the Mets, but the Angels and Rangers also appear extremely interested. Zito is 11-1 with a 3.75 ERA in 15 career starts at Texas’ Ameriquest Field. . . . Minnesota is attempting to trade for pitching to replace the retired Brad Radke and injured Francisco Liriano. Colorado’s Jason Jennings is apparently at the top of the Twins’ wish list. . . . The Rockies have had some talks with the Cubs about Jennings but want Rich Hill, whom scouts believe has the same skill set as a young Zito. He’s an untouchable. . . . It might take a three-year contract to land 34-year-old outfielder Dave Roberts, who is a consideration for both the White Sox and Cubs. . . . Some have reported the Giants have put three-year, $30 million proposals on the table for Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr., available to the first one to take it. Pierre should jump at that figure, but Matthews is looking for more. Milwaukee is interested in Pierre, although probably not at that level. . . . Texas hasn’t had a rookie of the year since 1974, when Mike Hargrove won the award. That’s the longest such streak in either league.
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