Dear Tom,
I realize weather forecasting is tricky at all times of the year, but is it harder to forecast temperatures in the winter versus the summer? It seems as if temperature forecasts are more accurate in the summer than in the winter, at least here in Chicago.
Roland Whiting
Dear Roland,
The National Weather Service maintains an extensive verification program that allows its forecast offices to determine the accuracy of their weather forecasts. Verification statistics support your feeling that summertime temperature forecasts are, on average, more accurate than winter forecasts.
Those statistics show that the average error in temperature forecasts out through 48 hours (two days) is 2-3 degrees during the summer and 3-4 degrees during the winter. Weather forecasts tend to be less accurate during turbulent weather, and winter is Chicago’s stormiest season.
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Tom Skilling is chief meteorologist at WGN-TV. His forecasts can be seen Monday through Friday on WGN-TV News at noon and 9 p.m.
Write to: ASK TOM WHY, 2501 Bradley Pl., Chicago, IL 60618 or asktomwhy@wgntv.com (Mail volume precludes personal response.)
WGN-TV meteorologists Steve Kahn, Richard Koeneman and Paul Dailey plus weather producer Bill Snyder contribute to this page.
