The drafting of Peyton Manning No. 1 overall in 1998 (or should they have taken Ryan Leaf instead?) was the franchise moment for the Colts. And it’s probably just a coincidence that the number of pages devoted to Manning in the Indianapolis media guide is precisely 18, which is also his jersey number.
To make the numerologists feel appreciated, the Colts also have drafted 18 offensive players since the arrival of Manning, who has never missed a game in his career.
The Colts use their running game extensively and effectively, averaging 35 carries over their three playoff victories. But Manning is the franchise and the Colts operate accordingly. Their offense consisted of 57 percent pass plays this season, 65 percent of them completions for nearly 4,400 yards.
The only doubt surrounding Manning is his performance in the postseason. He has posted a passer rating higher than 80 in only five of 12 career playoff games. Manning has thrown more than 35 passes in six playoff games; the Colts are 2-4 in those games. But the good news for the Colts is both of those victories have come this year, with 38 attempts against the Chiefs and 47 in the AFC championship game victory over the Patriots.
COLTS
THE PRINCIPALS
QB Peyton Manning
WR Marvin Harrison
WR Reggie Wayne
TE Dallas Clark
LT Tarik Glenn
Manning is the face of the NFL. Based on his numbers alone, he is on his way to Canton. But he has fallen short in playoff games in previous years and again there are potential cracks in the veneer. The player with a 101 passer rating for the season has posted totals of 71.9, 39.6 and 79.1 this postseason.
Manning threw 31 touchdown passes and only nine interceptions for the season; in three playoff games he has thrown only two touchdown passes and six interceptions, with a rating of 66.8, lower than Rex Grossman’s 75.4. Manning was sacked less than once per game in the season but has gone down five times in this postseason.
Manning and Harrison are the NFL’s all-time best passing combo, but Wayne earned a trip to the Pro Bowl with his 86 catches and nine TDs. He and Harrison give the Colts two receivers with more than 1,300 yards and a total of 21 receiving touchdowns. Wayne is the game-breaker.
Clark caught 30 passes in the regular season and already has 17 in the postseason with an average of 16.5 yards per catch, stunning for someone 252 pounds. Clark is a threat down the middle and gained 137 receiving yards against the Patriots, 103 against the Chiefs and 41 against the Ravens. He has 281 yards in the playoffs after 367 in the entire regular season.
Glenn is a veteran protector of Manning’s blind side, and the Bears’ two best rush linemen, Mark Anderson and Alex Brown, most often rush from the Colts’ left side. But of the six sacks of Manning through the three playoff games, only a half-sack came from a defensive lineman. Unlike the Bears’ starting offensive linemen, all of whom were free-agent signees besides center Olin Kreutz, all five of the Colts’ starters have played their entire careers with the Colts.
BEARS
THE PRINCIPALS
DE Mark Anderson
MLB Brian Urlacher
FS Danieal Manning
CB Charles Tillman
Anderson, a rookie fifth-round draft choice, became one of the surprise impact players of the season, notching a team-best 12 sacks and sharing the team lead with four forced fumbles despite limited playing time. He will face one of the NFL’s best in Glenn, and the Bears desperately need edge pressure that very few Colts opponents have been able to generate.
Urlacher was a safety in college and possesses speed and coverage skills that helped him produce three interceptions and eight pass deflections this season. His ability–with help from Danieal Manning–to neutralize Clark could factor heavily in the outcome as no quarterback is better than Peyton Manning at spotting matchups and exploiting them.
Danieal Manning has superior speed for a safety but cannot afford some of the bad angles he was caught in late in the season. The Colts have a passing attack that gets the ball out of Peyton Manning’s hands extremely fast, meaning the Bears will be challenged to tackle well.
Tillman, along with left cornerback Nathan Vasher, will be assigned with being physical with starting receivers who are sub-200 pounds. But Harrison is one of the all-time greats, Wayne is an emerging star, and both have destroyed a long line of secondaries that were deemed to be physical.
THE ANALYSIS
Putting pressure on Manning is critical, but it’s not a cure-all. Teams that sacked him the most also lost to the Colts. Nearly half (7) of Manning’s 15 sacks on the season came in the first four games of the season, all Colts wins. Three other sacks came against the Patriots, another Colts win. He has been sacked five times in the playoffs, and the Colts won all three games. The Bears rely on their front four for pressure; defensive linemen recorded all but four of their 40 sacks this season.
