Pat Gillick knows something about winning with a manager who is bland and often criticized by the public. He twice won the World Series in Toronto with Cito Gaston as his manager and now he’s the Phillies general manager trying to do it with Charlie Manuel.
Manuel, who took over for Larry Bowa in 2005, returns for a third season after guiding the Phillies to runner-up finishes the last two years. He has put together a .535 winning percentage in five seasons as a big-league manager, including a trip to the playoffs with the Indians in 2001, but he seldom has seemed secure in his job.
Once again, there will be howls for his dismissal if the Phillies stumble out of the gate. After all, Jimmy Rollins has declared them the “team to beat” in the National League East–a bold statement given the state of the New York Mets.
Some other managers who start the season under the gun:
1. MIKE HARGROVE – Mariners
GM Bill Bavasi has remained in Hargrove’s corner despite back-to-back last-place finishes in the AL West. But you wonder if Bavasi will have to sacrifice Hargrove to convince Ichiro Suzuki the franchise is serious about contending.
2. ERIC WEDGE – Indians
A favorite of GM Mark Shapiro, Wedge’s stock with fans has dropped since the 1-6 finish that knocked the Indians out of the playoffs in 2005. He rode out a disappointing fourth-place season without losing management’s support but will come under immediate fire if the Indians don’t break the pattern of starting slowly.
3. SAM PERLOZZO – Orioles
Given the teams he has had to work with, it’s hard to know much about Perlozzo as a manager. But he hasn’t made much impact thus far.
4. OZZIE GUILLEN – White Sox
Winning the World Series in 2005 should buy Guillen more than two years’ time, but he seemed surprisingly combustible in ’06.
5. JOE TORRE – Yankees
This is the last year on his contract, and an in-season change is probably not out of the question if the Yankees were to fall far behind the Red Sox. They have lost their last three postseason series, including first-round exits in 2005 and ’06.
CHICAGO STORY
AARON ROWAND
Phillies
Crushed by the White Sox’s decision to include him in the Jim Thome trade only a month after the World Series parade, it turns out Rowand didn’t miss a thing last year. The Phillies were in the playoff chase as long as the Sox, who definitely missed Rowand’s bat in center field. He endeared himself to the tough Philadelphia fans with his all-out style of play, including the frequently replayed face-first crash into the outfield fence. Rowand’s name has been in trade rumors this off-season, in part because the Phillies like fourth outfielder Shane Victorino, but the White Sox did not push for him in the deal that sent Freddy Garcia to the Phillies. More and more, Rowand looks like the kind of player you measure by his team’s success, not his own statistics.
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
METS
Last year: 97-65, 1st; beat Dodgers in first round, lost to the Cardinals in NLCS.
Manager: Willie Randolph.
Payroll: $105 million-$110 million.
Headliners: Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Billy Wagner.
Additions: LF Moises Alou, LHP Scott Schoeneweis, RHP Jorge Sosa, RHP Ambiorix Burgos, RHP Jon Adkins, OF Ben Johnson, RHP Chan Ho Park, 2B Damion Easley, 2B-CF David Newhan.
Losses: LF Cliff Floyd, RHP Steve Trachsel, RHP Chad Bradford, RHP Victor Zambrano, RHP Brian Bannister, LHP Royce Ring, RHP Heath Bell.
Health watch: Martinez isn’t expected back from his torn rotator cuff until at least Memorial Day, putting an early strain on the rotation. Reliever Duaner Sanchez hopes he is recovered from the separated shoulder that sidelined him in the NLCS.
X-factor: How much more can Glavine have left at 41? He flirted with a return to Atlanta but decided to stay with the Mets. He has 290 victories, and the Mets are counting on him getting No. 300 by early August, at the latest.
Tipping point: With a deep bullpen and loaded lineup, the Mets’ question mark is the rotation. GM Omar Minaya didn’t sign Barry Zito or another top starter, so he will open the season with Glavine, RHP Orlando Hernandez and two starters from a group that includes RHP John Maine, LHP Oliver Perez, Park, RHP Aaron Sele, RHP Mike Pelfrey and RHP Philip Humber.
PHILLIES
Last year: 85-77, 2nd.
Manager: Charlie Manuel.
Payroll: $95 million.
Headliners: Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, Freddy Garcia.
Additions: Garcia, RHP Adam Eaton, C Rod Barajas, 3B Wes Helms, OF Jayson Werth.
Losses: LHP Randy Wolf, LF David Dellucci, C Mike Lieberthal, 1B-OF Jeff Conine, LHP Arthur Rhodes, RHP Gavin Floyd.
Health watch: Eaton appears to have recovered from the finger injury that limited him to 13 starts last year with the Rangers. He had better be, as GM Pat Gillick gave him a three-year deal worth $24 million. That’s a lot of faith to put in a pitcher who hasn’t made more than 22 starts in a season since 2004.
X-factor: The White Sox traded Garcia because his velocity was down and he was a year away from free agency. But he’s likely to have a huge season moving to the NL, possibly even challenging for a Cy Young Award. He will set the tone for the team.
Tipping point: The Phillies outscored the more highly regarded Mets last year, thanks largely to Howard’s MVP season. Gillick has overhauled the rotation, hoping veterans Jamie Moyer, Garcia and Eaton can match the top end of the Mets’ rotation. Second-year LHP Cole Hamels could play a huge role in a rotation that’s currently six deep with RHPs Brett Myers and Jon Lieber.
BRAVES
Last year: 79-83, 3rd.
Manager: Bobby Cox.
Payroll: $80 million.
Headliners: Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, John Smoltz, Tim Hudson.
Additions: LHP Mike Gonzalez, RHP Rafael Soriano, 1B-OF Craig Wilson, RHP Tanyon Sturtze.
Losses: 1B Adam LaRoche, 2B Marcus Giles, LHP Horacio Ramirez, RHP Chris Reitsma, LHP Mike Remlinger, C Todd Pratt.
Health watch: LHP Mike Hampton, who has missed 1 1/2 years after Tommy John surgery, is throwing and hopes to rejoin the top-heavy starting rotation. Sturtze is recovering from shoulder surgery and won’t be ready until May.
X-factor: LaRoche delivered 32 homers and 90 RBIs last season but was traded for Gonzalez, as GM John Schuerholz focused on rebuilding the bullpen. That creates a big opportunity for Scott Thorman, a left-handed-hitting slugger. Wilson is available if Thorman struggles.
Tipping point: More than anything, a leaky bullpen ended the Braves’ run of 14 consecutive division titles last year. Despite the midseason addition of the solid Bob Wickman, the Braves blew an NL-high 29 saves last year. Schuerholz appears to have turned a weakness into a strength in trading for Gonzalez and Soriano while re-signing Wickman.
MARLINS
Last year: 78-84, 4th.
Manager: Fredi Gonzalez.
Payroll: $25 million.
Headliners: Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, Dontrelle Willis.
Additions: 1B-3B Aaron Boone, RHP Kevin Gregg, OF Alex Sanchez.
Losses: RHP Joe Borowski, 3B Wes Helms, RHP Matt Herges, RHP Brian Moehler.
Health watch: LHP Anibal Sanchez and RHP Josh Johnson experienced soreness in the off-season after outstanding 2006 seasons. Neither required more than rest, but both will be watched closely in the spring.
X-factor: Borowski will be missed badly after a 36-save season. Taylor Tankersley gets the first crack to replace him, but a spring training trade for Armando Benitez or another veteran is possible. Another option is to move Ricky Nolasco from the rotation to the bullpen. GM Larry Beinfest also may make a deal to fill the hole in center field, where Reggie Abercrombie, Joe Borchard and Eric Reed are likely to get most of the playing time this spring.
Tipping point: The decision to fire manager Joe Girardi will be hotly debated if Gonzalez, a Bobby Cox protege, doesn’t do good work in his first year. Girardi rubbed a lot of people in the organization wrong, but got unproven players to believe in themselves and produce. A step backward would be very unpopular in South Florida, where the Marlins’ future depends on the realization of a stadium deal.
NATIONALS
Last year: 71-91, 5th.
Manager: Manny Acta.
Payroll: $40 million.
Headliners: Ryan Zimmerman, Austin Kearns, Chad Cordero.
Additions: 1B Travis Lee, LHP Ray King, RHP Tim Redding, RHP Jerome Williams, LHP Brandon Claussen, RHP Jermaine Van Buren, LHP Chris Michalak, 2B D’Angelo Jimenez, INF Tony Womack, OF Michael Restovich.
Losses: LF Alfonso Soriano, 2B Jose Vidro, OF Jose Guillen, RHP Tony Armas, RHP Ramon Ortiz.
Health watch: The thinnest rotation in the majors, by far, is not even healthy. Default ace John Patterson is recovering from forearm surgery in July, LHP Michael O’Connor had his elbow scoped in November and Claussen is recovering from rotator-cuff surgery. Nick Johnson, a key member of the lineup, is dealing with the effects of the broken leg suffered in September and shortstop Cristian Guzman missed all of last season.
X-factor: Guzman, a huge disappointment to this point, gets a chance to dig his way out of the doghouse because of the Vidro trade. Felipe Lopez is moving to second base, where he has All-Star potential. If Guzman can hit, this could be a very good middle infield.
Tipping point: If the badly undermanned Nationals are to avoid a season like the Tigers 119-loss nightmare in 2003, GM Jim Bowden is going to have to find some pitchers in other camps this spring.
MONDAY: THE NL WEST
