Who will be on the outside looking in after this weekend?
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan State, Purdue?
All have NCAA tournament aspirations, and how they play in the Big Ten tournament will likely make the difference. And Ohio State isn’t just window dressing. The Buckeyes can make an emphatic statement and be the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. But the favorite rarely wins this conference tournament–just twice in nine years. The second seed? Five times, and that’s Wisconsin, which could parlay a tournament title into a No. 1.
So much to watch . . .
The bracket
BIG TEN CONFERENCE
#8 Michigan
W-L: 20-11, 8-8.
Coach: Tommy Amaker, 107-81 with Wolverines.
Last 10: 4-6. Could have made life difficult for NCAA selection committee against Ohio State on Sunday, but choked late and lost by four.
There are four seniors in the starting lineup, the league isn’t exactly stocked with Goliaths . . . and here Michigan is, on the outskirts of NCAA tournament relevancy for the sixth straight season under Tommy Amaker. (In fairness, thanks to NCAA sanctions in 2002-03, the Wolverines weren’t eligible for the selection committee to ignore them.)
Michigan guard Dion Harris grumbled after the collapse against Ohio State that “coming close means you didn’t get it.”
Amaker agreed Monday, saying, “We want to achieve, and not feel like we were close to it, or let it slip by, whatever you want to say.”
Two victories–meaning an upset of the Buckeyes in the quarterfinals–would quell the hostility. Anything less and it’s anyone’s guess as to the fate of Amaker and the program.
#9 Minnesota
W-L: 9-21, 3-13.
Coach: Jim Molinari, 7-16 interim with Gophers.
Last 10: 2-8. Ended regular season on eight-game losing streak. More interested in searching for a new coach than victories.
On the one hand, the Gophers’ three conference victories were three more than the fewest ever officially recorded by a Minnesota team. On the other hand, that means you’re counting the seasons in which all games were vacated thanks to penalties from an academic-fraud scandal.
Otherwise this tied for the second-worst Big Ten season for Minnesota, eclipsed only by a 2-10 showing in 1944. Coach Jim Molinari merely is trying to prevent a total meltdown as the school sets to hire a permanent replacement for the departed Dan Monson.
Against Michigan, who knows. But there is nowhere near enough firepower for the Gophers to survive into the weekend.
#1 Ohio State
W-L: 27-3 (15-1)
Coach: Thad Matta (73-21 with Buckeyes)
Last 10: 10-0. And, for that matter, 14-0 in their last 14, as the Buckeyes have not lost a game since a three-point defeat Jan. 9 at Wisconsin.
An NCAA tournament regional top seed is probably Ohio State’s to lose. So, too, may be the Big Ten tournament title itself, though that presumably and validly would raise Wisconsin’s hackles. But could one nevertheless make the argument that the Buckeyes will be among the weekend’s most intriguing teams?
They are so callow, calendar-wise, with freshmen Greg Oden, Mike Conley Jr. and Daequan Cook playing pivotal (literally, in Oden’s case) roles. Yet also so indisputably talented and evidently resilient, as the late comeback Saturday at Michigan demonstrated.
“We showed great poise and never lost our composure, and we had chances to do that,” coach Thad Matta said.
How the Buckeyes respond to such pressure at the United Center could illuminate how they will respond at other neutral sites, with much more at stake, in the coming weeks.
#4 Iowa
W-L: 17-13 (9-7)
Coach: Steve Alford, 152-105 with Hawkeyes.
Last 10: 6-4. Crushed by 32 at Michigan State on Feb. 17, but worse was to come: A two-point loss at Penn State likely killed the Hawkeyes’ at-large NCAA hopes.
The Hawkeyes need victories.
“How many? Hard to say,” coach Steve Alford said. “To finish fourth in this league means a lot. But obviously we were not able to do as much in the non-league as some of the other teams we’re bunched with. How many wins? I don’t know.”
Three likely will do. Other than winning the automatic bid–which Alford’s teams did in 2001 and 2006–Iowa’s lackluster overall record and its late loss at Penn State likely dooms it to the NIT.
The only meeting between Iowa and quarterfinal opponent Purdue was a Feb. 21 blowout victory for the Hawkeyes in Iowa City. On the subject of numbers Iowa needs, here’s another: The 11 points provided by Adam Haluska, the Big Ten’s leading scorer, in that previous yawner against the Boilermakers? Probably not enough this time.
#5 Purdue
W-L: 20-10, 9-7.
Coach: Matt Painter, 29-29 with Boilermakers.
Last 10: 7-3. Ended on a three-game win streak–thanks to playing Northwestern (twice) and Minnesota, hardly a late-season gantlet.
If the NCAA tournament selection show was about illusions and sleight-of-schedule, Purdue could be a No. 1 seed.
But without doing some work this weekend, the Boilermakers’ 20 victories and better-than-.500 league mark are all but mirages. Of six ranked opponents, Purdue lost to five, only beating now-unranked Indiana at home.
The Boilermakers have three victories away from home–one of which was a neutral-site victory over Oklahoma at the Maui Invitational. The other two victimized Northwestern and Penn State, who combined for four Big Ten victories this season.
Purdue’s RPI is a respectable 45 entering the weekend, allowing for hope, but it trails Illinois and Indiana. A victory against Iowa in the quarterfinals is an absolute must for the NCAA resume. A close loss to Ohio State in the semifinals wouldn’t hurt.
#7 Michigan State
W-L: 21-10, 8-8.
Coach: Tom Izzo, 276-119 with Spartans.
Last 10: 4-6. Four straight losses, then four straight victories, then two losses to end regular season . . . who precisely are these Spartans?
If ever there was were a case study for the effect of the Big Ten’s unbalanced schedule, the Spartans are it. They faced both Ohio State and Wisconsin–clearly the class of the league–twice during league play. Indiana faced each just once. Fellow NCAA tournament bubble team Purdue saw the Badgers just once and Iowa saw the Buckeyes on Jan. 20.
“The conference schedule is a tricky thing now, and it really helps or hurts different teams,” Izzo said.
All trembling ceases with two victories, meaning a quarterfinal victory over the Badgers–who, appropriate to the schedule wackiness, the Spartans would be meeting for the third time in six games. Michigan State’s defense is a team effort (56.3 ppg allowed, the school’s lowest mark since 1951-52) and the offense consists of Drew Neitzel (18.3 ppg) and a strict prayer regimen.
#10 Northwestern
W-L: 13-17, 2-14.
Coach: Bill Carmody, 95-112 with Wildcats.
Last 10: 2-8. Only victories were over Penn State, with which the Wildcats tied for last place, and Texas-Pan American, both at home.
It has been a long time since Northwestern’s best victory of the season, a 49-39 upset of DePaul on Nov. 14 at Welsh-Ryan Arena.
The conference tournament gives the Wildcats one last shot at a victory or two, but opening up against Michigan State makes it tough. At least it gives the younger Wildcats another taste of what it’s going to take to become a factor in the Big Ten.
Freshman forward Kevin Coble has improved as the season has gone on, averaging 15.8 ppg in the last nine. Sophomore guard Craig Moore has had a disappointing shooting season after making the league’s all-freshman team a year ago, partially because of a preseason ankle injury. Senior forward Tim Doyle has averaged 15.6 points in the last 10 games and has 151 career assists, three short of the school record.
#2 Wisconsin
W-L: 27-4 (13-3.)
Coach: Bo Ryan, 139-53 with Badgers.
Last 10: 7-3. Bit of a stumble at the end with back-to-back losses at Michigan State and Ohio State before closing with a tight home win over the Spartans.
The six days separating Wisconsin’s regular-season finale and its Big Ten tournament opener were, no doubt, far from a hassle-free holiday. But there were no games.
That may be the nearest equivalent to a vacation at this time of year and it may be just the tonic for the Badgers. The last three contests of the regular season were gut-crunching.
The days off could allow Alando Tucker and friends to clear their heads and focus on postseason goals. Reaching them could be tricky with a quarterfinal matchup likely against Michigan State-the Spartans defeated the Badgers on Feb. 20 and lost by two Saturday in Madison. But vying for an NCAA No. 1 seed always is troublesome. The late-season blur behind it, Wisconsin at least clearly can see the trouble coming.
#6 Illinois
W-L: 21-10, 9-7.
Coach: Bruce Weber, 110-26 with Illini.
Last 10: 7-3. Included noteworthy home wins over Indiana and Michigan State, a four-point loss at Indiana and road losses to Purdue, Indiana and Iowa.
Illinois heads to the Big Ten tournament in good shape for an NCAA berth, although a loss to Penn State in the first round could make them sweat.
To make a run in the Big Ten and NCAA, Illinois has to make more plays in the final minutes.
Center Shaun Pruitt is coming off consecutive 20-point games against Penn State and Iowa, and if the Illini can get the ball to him, the rest of the offense should open up. Weber wants to see better shot selection from guard Rich McBride.
Illini lost some depth when guard Jamar Smith was lost for the season after a Feb. 13 car accident, which led to a DUI charge against the sophomore. Freshman center Brian Carlwell also was injured in the accident.
#11 Penn State
W-L: 11-18, 2-14.
Coach: Ed DeChellis, 42-75 with Nittany Lions.
Last 10: 1-9. Celebrated second Big Ten victory of the season against Iowa on Feb. 28 with 31-point loss at Indiana.
This week coach Ed DeChellis opined his team has struggled in part because it lacks a third scorer. You also might suggest his team has struggled because it lacks consistent miracles.
Four starters returned from a .500 team last season, yet Penn State managed to lose 13 conference games in a row. At this rate, with all but one key rotation player returning next year, someone better build a fallout shelter in the Bryce Jordan Center.
Anyway, junior Geary Claxton is the focal point (16.6 ppg), but DeChellis is right about one thing: The only chance the Nittany Lions have is spreading the wealth. In its two Big Ten victories, Penn State had four double-digit scorers each time, and Claxton was not the leading scorer in either game.
#3 Indiana
W-L: 20-9, (10-6)
Coach: Kelvin Sampson, 20-9 with Hoosiers.
Last 10: 6-4. Was regular season close deceiving? Three wins in last four, but all against conference dregs Northwestern, Penn State and Minnesota.
Indiana is confounding. Its RPI of 23 is third highest in the Big Ten, bettered only by Ohio State (2) and Wisconsin (4). The Hoosiers didn’t lose a home game all season-but their 2-9 road mark was abysmal, their only semi-quality victory away from Assembly Hall coming against Connecticut in a down season. Then again, what team would win consistently with a road slate featuring Duke, Butler, Ohio State and Michigan State? Then again, a double-digit loss at Purdue and a close defeat at Michigan don’t exactly place the Hoosiers among the elite. Indiana probably is playing this weekend for NCAA seeding and maybe a little respect.
“For a lot of schools, this may not be considered a great year,” coach Kelvin Sampson said this week. “But this year, for this team, for this group of kids and what they’ve been through the last couple of years, I couldn’t be happier.”
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Team capsules by Tribune staff reporter Brian Hamilton except Illinois and Northwestern by Terry Bannon.
