One of the most vexing hands in poker is middle pairs.
You might start with the best holding, but you also might have the worse draw if you are up against a pair of overcards.
So, your willingness to play middle pairs to the river or for a big chunk of your stack depends largely on your read of your opponent and his betting pattern.
At the 2000 World Series of Poker, Jeff Shulman was the chip leader with about $2.5 million with seven players remaining. The blinds were $25,000-$50,000 when Shulman found wired 7s.
“I’d raised $150,000 seven out of eight hands,” said Shulman, publisher of Card Player magazine and a tournament circuit regular. “I had pocket 7s and I made it $300,000.”
Chris Ferguson, whose nickname is “Jesus” for the long, brown locks he wears under his trademark black cowboy hat, moved all in behind Shulman for $1.6 million.
Jeff Shulman
7 OF HEARTS
7 OF SPADES
Chris Ferguson
6 OF CLUBS
6 OF DIAMONDS
The flop
6 OF HEARTS
5 OF HEARTS
10 OF HEARTS
Turn and river
3 OF CLUBS
10 OF CLUBS
Shulman faced a major decision: A call and a win would give him a massive chip lead, but a call and a loss would see him plummet dramatically.
If Ferguson held aces or kings or any pair bigger than 7s, Shulman was about an 80-20 percent underdog. If he was facing A-K offsuit, he was a 55-45 percent favorite to win the hand. If he was up against an underpair, Shulman was more than an 80-20 percent favorite.
So, what did Ferguson’s bet tell Shulman?
“He wouldn’t have bet so much with aces or kings,” Shulman said. “He wouldn’t want to run me off the hand. People weren’t really doing it. People weren’t really playing it that way with A-K, A-Q. They were just doing it with pairs.
“I’d been watching him play and he was doing it with small pairs, so I figured I had him. I thought he had like 4s or 5s.
“The worse the hand is, the more people bet typically.”
So, Shulman made the $1.6 million call. Ferguson, one of the faces of the FullTiltPoker online site, flipped over 6s. Shulman was more than an 80-percent favorite.
But the flop came 6-5-10, all hearts, giving Ferguson a set while giving Shulman a flush draw.
The turn came the 3 of clubs giving Shulman a straight draw to go with his flush draw and pair of 7s.
The river came the 10 of clubs to give Ferguson the pot.
“In hindsight,” Shulman said, “I don’t need to call that all in for $1.6 million, even though I was right.”
Shulman made the right call and got hit by a bad deck. It happens. That’s poker.
Shulman would see his stack cut to about $900,000 and would bust out in seventh place.
Ferguson, meanwhile, would go heads-up with all-time great T.J. Cloutier and hold an 11-1 chip lead before Cloutier virtually evened the game. As he did against Shulman, Ferguson would come from behind on the final hand of the tournament, hitting a 9 to pair his A-9 and bust Cloutier’s A-Q to become champion.
Table talk
Overcards: Cards in your hand that out-rank those on the board, or cards on the board than out-rank those in your hand.
