From hiding, possibly in Iran, U.S. nemesis and radical anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is believed to be honing plans to sweep into the power vacuum made all the more intense by news that his chief Shiite rival has lung cancer. And he’s betting the U.S. won’t keep its troops in Iraq much longer.
Al-Sadr aides and loyal lawmakers have told The Associated Press the cleric’s ambitions mean he will avoid taking on the Americans militarily as he did in 2004, when his Mahdi Army militia fought U.S. forces to a standstill.
Instead, the 33-year-old cleric plans to keep up the drumbeat of anti-American rhetoric, consolidate political gains in Baghdad and the mainly Shiite south, and quietly foster even closer ties with neighboring Iran and its Shiite theocracy.
The strategy is based in part on al-Sadr’s belief that Washington will soon start pulling out troops or draw them down significantly, leaving behind a huge hole in Iraq’s security and political power structure, al-Sadr’s associates said.
Iraqi Defense Minister Abdul-Qader al-Obeidi told reporters Monday that Iraq’s military is drawing up plans in case U.S.-led forces leave the country quickly.
It was unclear whether al-Obeidi was referring to routine contingency planning, or if his remarks reflected a new realization among Iraqi leaders that the days of American support may be numbered.
Al-Sadr is said by U.S. officials to have been in Iran since he dropped out of sight some three months ago and is widely believed to be increasingly relying on Iran as the main sponsor of his movement.
