There’s no way the Cavaliers beat the Spurs in the NBA Finals, right? Of course, there was no way the Cavs could beat the Pistons. Or the Pistons could beat the Hall of Fame Lakers in 2004. Or, the Heat could beat the Mavericks down 2-0 in last year’s Finals. So do the Cavs have a chance? Remember, the 1991 Bulls weren’t supposed to have a chance against the more experienced Lakers.
What makes it possible–if not likely–for the Cavs to win, is LeBron James, and some of the slowest basketball this side of Mike Fratello. Cavs coach Mike Brown is a disciple of Spurs coach Gregg Popovich, who was dragged into the NBA’s modern age by the speed of Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. Brown prefers the handbook used by Pat Riley with the Knicks–slowing the game, grinding out every possession, getting back on defense. That usually means close games and with that, and a star like James, the unexpected becomes possible.
POINT GUARD
Tony Parker vs. Larry Hughes
Hughes really isn’t even a point guard, but he had so little to do as a shooting guard playing with James they decided to let him bring the ball up the court. Parker is the jet of the Spurs’ offense, which enables them to run with anyone if need be. It will be difficult for Hughes–or anyone–to keep Parker out of the lane. Hughes is known as a decent defender who plays the passing lanes, but he hurt his foot in the Pistons series and hasn’t fully recovered.
EDGE: SPURS
SHOOTING GUARD
Michael Finley vs. Sasha Pavlovic
Manu Ginobili is probably the true shooting guard for the Spurs, but he moved back to the bench again to balance the team. Good-guy Finley is a great story. He left the Mavs before they went to the Finals for the first time last year. It’s his first trip in his 12th season and he is a sentimental favorite. Plus, he has been no slouch in the playoffs, averaging in double figures every series and being one of the best three-point shooters at more than 46 percent. Pavlovic has been somewhat lost in the Cavs’ game, making the occasional three and playing passable defense.
EDGE: SPURS
POWER FORWARD
Tim Duncan vs. Drew Gooden
Duncan has been brilliant in these playoffs after two playoffs with various minor ailments. He has too much size for Gooden and is too quick for center Zydrunas Ilgauskas. He should net a fourth Finals MVP award, assuming the Spurs win. Gooden is an erratic player, a post-up type power forward who often thinks he’s a jump shooter. He’s not quite Rasheed Wallace, but has his emotional moments and has been typically erratic.
EDGE: SPURS
SMALL FORWARD
Bruce Bowen vs. LeBron James
The LeBron stopper? No way. James will be the media focus of this series, the star who will get the most attention after a brilliant series against the Pistons. He has been dogged in the past over poor free-throw shooting and mediocre jump shooting. The book on him is to push him left and he will take a bad fallaway. Bowen is perhaps the league’s best, and certainly most relentless, individual defender. But he hardly is a match for the bigger and stronger James. It’s a mismatch, but Bowen has been shooting 46 percent on threes in the playoffs and will require James to stay home on defense.
EDGE: CAVS
CENTER
Fabricio Oberto vs. Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Not much to watch here. Oberto is like Cavs’ supersub and flopper, Anderson Varejao. He’s a bundle of nerves and energy when Popovich compliments by calling him a productive ugly player. He gets to balls and is disruptive. His gait makes the awkward Ilgauskas look like a swan. When the mechanical Ilgauskas crosses the lane for that hook shot especially early, as the Cavs like to start the games going into him, you want to reach for your hard hat. In the stands. But he is a solid, reliable shooter straight away and will get his hands on rebounds.
EDGE: CAVS
BENCH
Ginobili is the star here, the league’s runner-up Sixth Man of the Year. When he scores 20 the Spurs almost always win. He throws up the most remarkable, unlikely shots while twisting his way to the basket with unusual efficiency. The Spurs also have Big Shot Robert Horry, also known as Cheap Shot after the Steve Nash takeout. Francisco Elson has some size and quickness and Brent Barry will make a shot. The Cavs have the unlikely star of the playoffs in second-round rookie Daniel Gibson, a shooting machine against the Pistons. The Cavs’ bench is mostly their shooters, Donyell Marshall and Damon Jones, plus Varejao.
EDGE: SPURS
COACH
Gregg Popovich vs. Mike Brown
Brown coached under Popovich for three seasons, including the 2003 championship, and is trying to put together a Spurs East with defense. They both credit current Cavs assistant and former Spurs aide Hank Egan. Brown is in his second season and defers to James a lot, which is smart for a young coach. Popovich is headed to the Hall of Fame and usually accuses his players of being soft once a series, which is smart for a veteran coach. They always respond. He’s perhaps the most no-excuses coach in the league.
EDGE: SPURS
Sam Smith’s pick: SPURS IN SIX
