1. A moderate vote of confidence
An economic lull that flattened activity early in 2007 prompted pessimists to predict that the consumer, weighed down with debts, would soon wilt. A fresh reading on consumer confidence occurs Tuesday, and Chicago economist Robert Dederick sees little chance that it will drop more than a tad from its reading of 108 in May. “Consumers aren’t taking a walk,” said Dederick, of RGD Economics. “Confidence is hanging in there, and optimism remains moderate.”
2. Cool spring for housing
The housing market gets two immediate tests, with May existing-home sales Monday and the month’s new-home sales Tuesday. Chicago economist Carl Tannenbaum of LaSalle Bank is telling clients, “Home sales, prices and construction remain under significant pressure; the spring realty season has not produced the hoped-for turnaround.”
3. Deliberations to begin
After nearly four months, the trial of newspaper tycoon Conrad Black is winding down, likely going to the jury no later than Tuesday. Black and four other executives are charged with defrauding the former parent company of the Chicago Sun- Times.
4. Fed’s eye on inflation
A two-day meeting by the Federal Reserve won’t yield any action on interest rates, but don’t assume it will be a non-event. Some analysts believe that the central bank may need to tighten credit later this year. The upshot of the meeting, which ends Thursday, is that the Fed will provide its latest views about inflation.
5. Clearing the bar?
Less than a week remains before companies total up second-quarter profits, and many face a high hurdle to show double-digit gains from a year ago. There is some question whether the earnings parade will mark the 20th straight quarter that year-over-year profits expand by 10 percent or more, said analyst Dirk van Dijk of Zacks Investment Research. As of now, he said expectations are for earnings growth just below 9 percent, but some upside surprises undoubtedly lie in wait.
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wsluis@tribune.com
