The numbers tell the story of why Tiger Woods is a veritable lock to win Sunday.
Woods is 12-0 in majors when he has the lead after 54 holes. That indicates a trend.
Woods is 23-0 in PGA Tour events when he has more than a one-shot lead going into the final round, including 6-0 in majors. Another good sign.
And then there’s the issue of 9 and 8. That was Woods’ winning score when he pummeled the bravado out of Stephen Ames in the 2005 Match Play tournament. Ames will be in the final pairing with Woods on Sunday. Good luck.
Along with the way he is playing, all of that should add up to Woods’ 13th major title. He moved a step closer Saturday with a 69 during the third round of the PGA Championship at Southern Hills. At 7 under, Woods has a three-shot lead over Ames, who also shot 69 to move into second place.
It was a steady but unspectacular round for Woods. Spectacular came Friday when Woods shot 63.
Saturday was about not making mistakes — one bogey — and reinforcing his position at the top.
“I accomplished my goal today,” Woods said. “My goal was to shoot under par and increase my lead. And I was able to do that. So positive day all around.”
Once Woods seizes control of a tournament, he seems to suck the hope out of the rest of the field. Ernie Els sits six shots back at 1 under.
“You can’t ever think it’s over,” Els said. But if Els were a fan watching on the couch at home? “I’d be putting my house on him, yeah,” he said.
Scott Verplank went into Saturday’s play two shots behind Woods and got a first-hand look at how Woods shifts into his winner’s mode.
“He’s the wrong guy to let get out ahead of you,” Verplank said after going backward with a 74. “He’s playing very well. When you hit a lot of fairways with irons and hit a lot of greens and you putt like he does, it doesn’t look that difficult.”
Woods offered a fairly standard explanation for his success as a front-runner, citing experience as a leader and knowing what he needs to do … blah, blah, blah.
But he went slightly out of character and displayed a bit of cockiness when he was asked why a multiple major winner such as Els would say the tournament is all but over.
“Maybe because I’ve won 12 majors,” he said with a smile.
Ames will be an obstacle in Woods’ bid for 13. But he’s likely to end up as road kill.
It happened last year when Ames popped off before his Match Play match with Woods, saying, “Anything can happen in match play, especially where he is hitting it.”
The remark irritated Woods, and his answer, as he has said several times, was, “9 and 8.”
Looking back, Woods said, “All I know is I read the quote and I knew if I went out there and played well, I felt pretty good about it. And (9 and 8).”
Ames didn’t care to relive the incident Saturday.
“Are we here at the PGA Championship or are we at the Match Play?” Ames said. “Which one are we talking about? … Next question.”
Ames said he is going to do his best to avoid paying attention to Woods. But he knows Woods’ playing partners tend to go down quickly and meekly in the final round of majors.
“He has that influence on players,” Ames said. “It’s probably going to happen to me. I don’t know, I haven’t been in this situation. My game plan is to be conscious of what I’m doing and not to be conscious of what Tiger’s doing. The only thing I have control over is myself, not him.”
Woods insisted he wouldn’t have any extra incentive against Ames. Do you believe him?
Last week Woods tattooed Rory Sabbatini for the second time this year in the final pairing of a tournament, running away with the Bridgestone Invitational. It was Sabbatini who stupidly suggested in May that Woods was as beatable as he has ever been.
Woods has a long memory about these kinds of things. He won’t forget what Ames said.
He definitely won’t forget what needs to be done to close out a tournament. There is a first for everything. At some point Woods will blow the lead in the final round of a major.
But it’s hard to see it happening Sunday. Woods’ numbers are just too overwhelming.
Tiger Woods’ perfect dozen
Tiger Woods is 12-0 at major championships when holding at least a share of the 54-hole lead. His career final-round scoring average is 69.25, while the poor souls paired with him on Sunday have averaged 72.92.
%% TOURNAMENT THE LEAD RD 4 FINISH MARGIN PAIRING RD 4
1997 Masters 9 over Rocca 69 -18 12 Rocca (75)
1999 PGA tie with Weir 72 -11 1 Weir (80)
2000 U.S. Open 10 over Els 67 -12 15 Els (72)
2000 British Open 6 over Bjorn, Duval 69 -19 8 Duval (75)
2000 PGA 1 over Dunlap, May 67 -18 playoff May (66)
2001 Masters 1 over Mickelson 68 -16 2 Mickelson (70)
2002 Masters tie with Goosen 71 -12 3 Goosen (74)
2002 U.S. Open 4 over Garcia 72 -3 3 Garcia (74)
2005 Masters 3 over DiMarco 71 -12 playoff DiMarco (68)
2005 British Open 2 over Olazabal 70 -14 5 Olazabal (74)
2006 British Open 1 over 3 players 67 -18 2 Garcia (73)
2006 PGA tie with Donald 68 -18 5 Donald (74) %% ———–
esherman@tribune.com
