To Chicagoans, the dense clusters of vacationers on North Michigan Avenue with their cameras and comfortable shoes are an unmistakable sign of a tourism boom.
But just how much of a boom is another question.
State and city tourism officials in June trumpeted that the city attracted 44.2 million domestic visitors in 2006, a rise of nearly 10 percent from 40.2 million in 2005.
What they did not disclose is that the figures for 2006 and prior years were based on a revised formula that dramatically bolstered the Chicago visitor numbers, pumping up the 2005 total, for instance, by a cool 8.2 million people.
While some cities and states have held off adopting the revised figures generated by an independent research firm, Chicago and Illinois tourism officials moved ahead boldly, accepting revisions that cast their efforts in a generally glowing light.
The new formula, which captures more day-trip visitors, vaulted Chicago into a four-way tie for first in 2006 with Atlanta, Orlando and New York. In 2005, under the old formula, Chicago was No. 4, behind Orlando in first place; then Las Vegas and New York, tied for second; and San Diego in third.
Visitor estimates are used to woo even more visitors and businesses.
“The number of visitors acts as an attraction,” said Ted Mandigo, a hospitality industry consultant based in Elmhurst. “It’s used for marketing purposes and to justify requests for budget increases and grants.”
Doug Shifflet, chief executive of D.K. Shifflet & Associates, the McLean, Va.-based research firm that generated the domestic visitor estimates, said Chicago has done an excellent job of building day-trip business. Las Vegas, in contrast, does relatively little day-trip business, he noted.
His company is using its new methodology for all its clients, including about 60 cities and states and more than 30 hotel chains. But some destinations, particularly those whose totals fell, are waiting until next year to roll out revised figures, Shifflet said.
“If the revision would cause political difficulty they wanted to make sure they could explain it to everybody,” he said.
Shifflet has asked three outside experts — two economists and a statistician — to review the new model. It is possible the methodology will be tweaked again after that, he said.
“We had underestimated Chicago substantially,” Shifflet said.
“It’s not that the old data was wrong, just that the new data is more accurate,” he said, noting that his company revises its methods every five to seven years.
Illinois and Chicago tourism officials didn’t feel it was necessary to point out the revisions when the data was released in June, said Andrew Ross, a spokesman for the Illinois Department of Commerce & Economic Opportunity, whose Illinois Bureau of Tourism unveiled the annual figures together with the Chicago Convention and Tourism Bureau and the Chicago Office of Tourism.
“Shifflet is always looking for ways to improve how it collects, analyzes and processes this data,” he said. “And these improvements are allowing us to better understand who is visiting Illinois and Chicago.”
“They are the experts, and when they make an improvement, we believe that’s the best way to go,” said Jan Kemmerling, local tourism division manager for the Illinois Bureau of Tourism.
The chief executive of the Chicago Convention and Tourism Bureau concurred. “As with any data collection, we expect that there will be frequent updates such as this last one and we’re confident and very pleased with the domestic visitor numbers,” said Tim Roby.
Under the old methodology, day trips to Chicago by people coming from 50 or more miles away were undercounted, Shifflet said. And the former calculation of how many hotel room nights were used by domestic travelers versus international visitors undercounted the domestic share, he said.
Downstate overcounted
On the other hand, statewide historical figures were revised downward. The state was estimated to have 91 million domestic visitors last year, up 6.4 percent from 85.5 million in 2005. Under the old formula, the 2005 figure was 90.8 million. The new method, applied to earlier annual totals, brought those numbers down significantly as well.
“We had been overcounting [domestic visitors] Downstate,” Shifflet said. A closer look at the domestic-international breakdown showed a greater share of the Downstate visitors were international, he said.
State and city tourism officials are under pressure to show continuous growth, said Mandigo, the hospitality industry consultant. “Funding comes from an ability to grow the business,” he said.
Noting that growth in the leisure travel business “is pretty close to the double-digit level,” he said, “I don’t think the [new Chicago] numbers are dramatically out of line.”
But others are not so sure.
“The routine experience with a lot of these estimates is that it’s a lot more art than science,” said Marc Levine, director of the Center for Economic Development at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. “They are the product of a lot of assumptions and sampling, and it depends on how you define a visitor, how precisely you measure, how you count specific visitors and how you multiply to get a full number.”
Large figure
Stressing that he does not have knowledge of Shifflet’s methodology, Levine noted that 44 million domestic visitors to Chicago seems like a pretty large figure. Montreal, for instance, reports about 14 million, he said.
“I’m pretty sure there are more tourists in Chicago than in Montreal but I’m not sure if the difference is of that magnitude,” he said.
Shifflet not only provides clients with estimates on overall visitor volume, including day-trip visitors, but it also provides estimates on overnight-visitor traffic only. And a number of observers take issue with Illinois, Chicago and other destinations that opt to present the larger overall totals, noting that the day trippers do not contribute as much to the local economy, in terms of hotel stays, restaurant meals, taxi use and the like.
The inclusion of day-trip visitors “tends to really overstate visitor activity because that is not what most people think of when they think of visitors,” said Heywood Sanders, a professor of public administration at the University of Texas at San Antonio. A baseball fan driving in from northwest Indiana is not the same sort of spender as an out-of-town guest staying several days, he said.
Looking at overnight visitors only, Chicago drew an estimated 21.8 million domestic visitors in 2006, less than half its overall domestic visitor total, according to Shifflet. By this measure, Chicago is behind Orlando, Atlanta and Las Vegas, but ahead of New York, which draws a lot of international traffic.
Illinois always has reported overall visitor totals, said Ross, noting that “the accepted international industry standard for a visitor is someone that travels 50 miles from their home or stays overnight.”
“Day trips are a very important part of the tourism economy,” he said. “They spend money just like any other tourist — visit attractions, shop and eat in restaurants.”
– – –
Tourism rankings
A revised formula for calculating the number of domestic visitors to a city each year has vaulted Chicago into a four-way tie for first in 2006 with Atlanta, Orlando and New York. In 2005, under the old formula, Chicago was No. 4.
2006 rankings, new formula
1. Chicago (4-way tie)
1. Atlanta
1. Orlando
1. New York
2. Houston
3. Atlantic City
4. San Diego
5. Dallas
6. San Antonio
7. Los Angeles
8. Las Vegas
2005 rankings, new formula
1. Orlando
2. Atlanta
3. Chicago
4. Las Vegas
5. New York
6. Dallas
7. San Antonio
8. Houston
9. San Diego
10. Los Angeles
2005 rankings, old formula
1. Orlando
2. Las Vegas (tie)
2. New York (tie)
3. San Diego
4. Chicago
5. Los Angeles
6. Atlantic City
7. Atlanta
———-
kbergen@tribune.com
