As Hurricane Felix moves west to northwest through the Caribbean Sea, the actual path will be greatly influenced by the attendant upper-air pattern. In the case of Felix, the movement of a triggering trough of low pressure aloft, now off the northwest coast of the United States, will eventually disrupt the series of five weaker high and low pressure circulations from California to Puerto Rico. By Friday, Felix will have tracked along the southern periphery of these Caribbean circulations to an area of weakness over northeast Mexico. At that point, the position and strength of the southern extremity of the triggering trough will greatly influence movement north or west of Felix’s storm center, and impact where subsequent heavy rains and flooding will occur.
MONDAY: Felix steers along the southern periphery of a weak Caribbean upper air pattern. A strong jet stream triggering trough of low pressure is positioned off the northwest U.S. coast.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Triggering trough moves into the Rockies, absorbing high pressure over southern California. Felix continues its course through the Caribbean.
FRIDAY: Triggering trough over the central U.S. absorbs low pressure in Texas, leaving an area of weakness over northeast Mexico within which Felix could steer either north or west.
Sources: National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center
WGN-TV/Paul Dailey
———-
Tom Skilling is chief meteorologist at WGN-TV. His forecasts can be seen Monday through Friday on WGN-TV News at noon and 9 p.m.
WGN-TV meteorologists Steve Kahn, Richard Koeneman and Paul Dailey plus weather producer Bill Snyder contribute to this page.
