Two interesting e-mails came my way after Appalachian State essentially turned Michigan into the nation’s second-best I-AA team.
One asked how I could have forgotten to compare the upset to Northwestern’s 17-15 shocker over Notre Dame in 1995. Another reader, realizing I had done that in a previous story, wondered how I could consider that an upset because NU finished the regular season 10-1, proving it was better. Hmmm …
Some people now are rethinking whether App State’s 34-32 victory qualifies as the greatest upset in college football history. Surely, it does not.
It’s difficult to compare to others because the game didn’t have a betting line. But a prominent oddsmaker told the Fayetteville (N.C.) Observer that the spread would have been about 24 points. USC was a 46-point favorite last Saturday against Idaho, a Division I-A team. (NU was a 28-point underdog to Notre Dame in ’95, by the way.)
App State just might finish seventh or eighth in the Big Ten if it had the chance. Did you see what Mountaineers receiver Dexter Jackson did after he caught the football? He was flying.
So last Saturday could have been a case of the nation’s 50th-best team beating the 20th best. Still a big upset, but maybe not a stunner.
Michigan faces another upset-ready opponent Saturday, Oregon. The Ducks’ 6-foot-4-inch, 205-pound quarterback, Dennis Dixon, ran for 141 yards on 15 carries last Saturday against Houston.
Wolverines observers will tell you Michigan, under coach Lloyd Carr, cannot contain mobile quarterbacks. Three examples: Donovan McNabb (38-28 loss to Syracuse in 1998), Vince Young (38-37 loss to Texas in the 2005 Rose Bowl), Troy Smith (three consecutive losses to Ohio State).
Michigan is 7-0 under Lloyd Carr when unranked. But I think its defense, which will have two new starters, has serious deficiencies. Enough so that I like Oregon to prevail. Call it 34-32.
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tgreenstein@tribune.com
