President Vladimir Putin dissolved his government Wednesday and chose an obscure Cabinet official as his new prime minister, a move widely seen as the Russian leader’s first steps in engineering a carefully controlled handover of power.
While analysts differed on whether Viktor Zubkov is Putin’s surprise choice to succeed as president when Putin steps down next spring or simply a caretaker figure, they agreed that the Kremlin’s shake-up marks the initial phase in a leadership change that is likely to be decided long before voters head to the polls.
Most Russians had never heard of Zubkov, 65, a close friend of Putin’s since they worked together in the St. Petersburg mayor’s office in the early 1990s and head of a government agency that combats money laundering
With parliamentary elections approaching in December and the presidential contest scheduled for March, speculation about whom Putin would pick as his successor has intensified across Russia.
Two longtime members of Putin’s inner circle, First Deputy Prime Ministers Sergei Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev, are viewed as the clear front-runners for the job. Ivanov, once Russia’s defense minister, now oversees diversification of Russia’s economy. Medvedev once served as Putin’s chief of staff and now is in charge of improving Russian health care, schools and housing.
Zubkov’s future debated
Some analysts said that Ivanov and Medvedev are likely to remain at the top of Putin’s list, and that Zubkov is a transitional figure who will steward the government while competing clans in the Kremlin wrangle over Russia’s future power structure.
“He’s absolutely a transitional person who cannot become a successor,” said Andrei Ryabov, a political analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center. “Zubkov has no background to become a successor.”
At least one analyst said he believes that by naming Zubkov as prime minister, Putin has revealed his choice for a successor.
“I think we are seeing the name of the next president of the Russian Federation,” said Konstantin Simonov, an analyst with the Center for Current Politics in Moscow. “Putin thinks now is a good time to reveal his successor. It’s his style of decision-making — unpredictable.”
Zubkov succeeds Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov, who told Putin on Wednesday he was stepping down to give the Russian president “full freedom of choice” ahead of the coming elections. “The country is on the eve of important political events,” Fradkov said.
Putin is in his last year of a second 4-year term. The Russian Constitution bars a president from serving more than two consecutive terms. Putin has the majority he needs in the Duma, the lower chamber of parliament, to change the constitution and extend his presidency, but he has said he would never pursue that route.
Putin and his aides have stressed that the next president will be chosen by Russian voters in March and will not be a hand-picked successor. At a dinner with foreign journalists last month, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin probably will express his preference for a presidential candidate, an endorsement that would have considerable sway over voters, given Putin’s immense popularity.
However, most political analysts believe Putin will select his successor behind the scenes, making a choice that reflects a continuation of his agenda for the country. Under Putin, the Kremlin has established a firm grip over Russian politics by marginalizing opposition movements and establishing control of parliament, the selection of provincial governors and national television networks.
Life after Putin
An even larger question looming as Putin’s presidency draws to a close is what role the Russian leader will take in the country’s oversight after he steps down. He has cryptically said he would continue to wield influence in some fashion after his presidency but has never specified how much control he would retain or howhe would exert that influence.
While barred from serving a third consecutive term, Putin could seek the presidency again in 2012.
“The most important question here is what will happen to Putin after the elections,” said Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a Moscow sociologist and an expert on Kremlin affairs. “What will he do if he wants to retain his current status and influence?”
Fradkov will stay on as acting prime minister until the Duma ratifies Zubkov, a decision expected to come Friday.
Hired to succeed former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov in 2004, Fradkov has headed up the Russian Cabinet at a time when high oil prices have buoyed the country’s economic and geopolitical resurgence. Like Zubkov, Fradkov was a little-known government official before his rise to prime minister, working as Russia’s envoy to the European Union.
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ajrodriguez@tribune.com
