Eric Byrnes and Chris Young against Jason Kendall and Geovany Soto
Kendall was a solid pickup in the midseason trade that brought him from Oakland, but the merry-goround behind the plate could continue because opponents have swiped 111 bases off him this season, including 52 in 57 tries since he joined the Cubs.
Soto’s arm is much stronger than Kendall’s, which could prompt manager Lou Piniella to start him even though he has started only 19 games in the big leagues. Young and Byrnes have 77 of Arizona’s 119 stolen bases.
Diamondbacks third base coach Chip Hale vs. Alfonso Soriano
Arizona is known as an aggressive team on the bases and seems certain to take chances against Jacque Jones and the Cubs’ right fielders, Cliff Floyd and Matt Murton.
It’s hard to imagine their advance scouts will recommend running on Soriano, who made one strong, accurate throw after another in September.
Teams have continued to run against him even though he has 41 outfield assists the last two seasons, the most in the majors.
Doug Davis and Doug Slaten vs. the Cubs lineup
Davis, the Diamondbacks’ No. 2 starter, and Slaten, the top lefty reliever, will be looking to exploit the Cubs’ mystifying weakness against left-handers.
It was on full display when Davis kept the lineup off-balance Aug. 25 at Chase Field, holding the Cubs to one run in seven innings. Don’t be surprised if he moves to the bullpen for Game 5 after his start.
The Cubs were 19-24 against left-handed starters and batted 11 points lower against lefties than right-handers during the regular season. This trend goes against the books, as the top four RBI men (Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Mark DeRosa and Soriano) are all right-handed hitters.
Craig Monroe, added in an August trade designed to balance the lineup, hit .204 with one homer in 49 at-bats and isn’t likely to get in the lineup.
Micah Owings vs. Carlos Zambrano
Zambrano prides himself on being a threat at the plate, as well as on the mound. His huge hacks from both sides are stylish, but he’s no match for Owings, the Diamondbacks’ No. 4 starter. He should replace Zambrano as the NL’s Silver Slugger winner at pitcher this season after batting .333 with 12 extra-base hits, including four homers, in only 60 at-bats.
Owings actually has been Arizona’s most productive hitter, compiling a .683 slugging percentage and .349 on-base percentage, and could prove valuable as a pinch-hitter, especially in an extrainning game. His hitting isn’t a fluke. He out-hit Murton when they were teammates at Georgia Tech.
Transplanted Chicagoans vs. Arizona loyalists
Chase Field can be a difficult place to play in the postseason, as the Yankees found out when Mariano Rivera went down in Game 7 in 2001. The Diamondbacks have used their home-field advantage to go 8-5 in their home playoff games. But the Cubs always draw thousands of noisy fans when they play in Phoenix, which is Chicago’s unofficial second home.
Ryan Dempster vs. the strike zone
When Boston ended its World Series drought in 2004, Keith Foulke was arguably the Red Sox’s MVP. He didn’t fit the closer’s mold, getting outs with a changeup, not a high-90s fastball, and never inspired huge confidence from his team’s fans. But after an indifferent season in which he was 32-for-39 in save situations, he was nails in October, compiling an 0.64 ERA in 11 appearances.
The key for Foulke was throwing strikes and not getting rattled, and that’s a must for Dempster. He’s not an elite closer but could build a head of steam against the light-hitting Diamondbacks, assuming he doesn’t ignite rallies with walks.
His average of 15.8 pitches per inning, down from 18.0 a year ago, is a good sign.
Soriano vs. Brandon Webb and Arizona’s other starting pitchers
Stopping Soriano is the priority for the Diamondbacks’ pitchers, especially in his first trip to the plate. Soriano, recovered from the leg injuries that bothered him in April, May and August, played a huge role in the Cubs’ 17-12 September, hitting .333 and setting a club record with 14 home runs. Seven of those came leading off the first inning. He”s a tone-setter. The Cubs were 20-8 when he homered. Soriano has had real problems this year against Webb (1-for-7) and set-up man Brandon Lyon (1-for-11).
