THE AURA vs. THE REALITY
Josh Beckett, who starts Game 1 for Boston, has a chance to become the first pitcher with five victories in a postseason. He was the MVP of the ALCS and has been dominant in October, first with Florida in 2003 and now with Boston. But Beckett isn’t going to scare the Rockies, at least not before he establishes himself. Colorado beat Beckett at Fenway Park in June, getting 10 hits off him in five innings. Its hitters are batting a career .358 off him, with Garrett Atkins (6-for-10, one homer), Matt Holliday (6-for-14, one homer) and Todd Helton (4-for-12, one homer) all holding good memories. Even Jamey Carroll, Kaz Matsui and Yorbit Torrealba are hitting at least .357 against the Red Sox’s ace.
RUST vs. REST
Colorado had eight days to kill after its NLCS sweep of Arizona. This can’t help the timing of Rockies’ hitters. Detroit, which had batted .285 in the ALCS, hit only .199 in last year’s World Series against St. Louis after having a week off after the LCS. Yet the guess here is the downtime won’t be that big of an issue for Colorado. It has been winning with pitching more than hitting — opponents have scored 16 runs in seven games in the playoffs — and the 2005 White Sox provide a road map for keeping pitchers sharp. The time off might even benefit Colorado’s stable of power pitchers.
CURT SCHILLING vs. FATHER TIME
October isn’t known for being a good time to use older starting pitchers. Before Kenny Rogers won the controversial Game 2 of the 2006 World Series, when Tony La Russa declined to make an issue of the foreign substance on Rogers’ thumb, no pitcher older than 41 had won a World Series game. Schilling turns 41 in November. Like Beckett, he also has not done well against Colorado’s hitters. He suffered a 12-2 loss against the Rockies this year, and has allowed the players on Colorado’s roster to bat .344 against him in his career. Helton (.333, five homers in 54 at-bats) has a long record of success against Boston’s Game 2 starter.
COLORADO’S 1-2 HITTERS vs. BOSTON’S 1-2 HITTERS
Both teams are loaded in the middle of the lineup, but the two championship series suggest Ortiz, Ramirez and Mike Lowell will have more chances to drive in runs than Holliday, Helton and Brad Hawpe. Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis were major factors in Boston’s comeback against Cleveland, scoring a combined 23 runs in 10 postseason games to date. Between them, they’re batting 29-for-82 (.354) with five homers and 15 RBIs. Willy Taveras and Kaz Matsui are batting a combined 12-for-47 (.255) in the playoffs.
THE ODDS vs. MANNY RAMIREZ AND DAVID ORTIZ
Ramirez and Ortiz can find a lot of pitchers they would rather face than those on the Rockies. It’s hard to believe, but they have combined to hit exactly zero home runs in 91 at-bats against the pitchers on Colorado’s playoff roster. Between them, Ramirez and Ortiz are 23-for-91 with no home runs and one RBI. The bad news for Rockies’ pitchers: These guys are due.
BOSTON’S STOLEN-BASE THREATS
(Jacoby Ellsbury, Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp and Dustin Pedroia) vs. YORVIT TORREALBA
Philadelphia’s scouting reports for the first-round series emphasized the need to run on Colorado, but circumstances of the games did not allow the Phillies to put their speedy plan into effect. Torrealba threw out only 15 of 76 runners attempting to steal this season. The Red Sox (four) and Rockies have combined for only six stolen bases in their 17 games in the postseason, but don’t be surprised if Boston looks to manufacture some runs against the Rockies’ tough pitching staff.
BOSTON’S BULLPEN vs. THE LEFT-HANDED MEAT OF COLORADO’S ORDER
Shutting down the Rockies’ left-handed hitters is a key for any team facing Colorado. Boston seems well-suited for that challenge, as it limited left-handed hitters to a .242 average this season, the lowest in the majors. Hideki Okajima would seem to be the guy to face Helton and Hawpe, but the Red Sox actually have right-handers who are tougher on lefties than Okajima. Left-handed batters are hitting .104 off Jonathan Papelbon, .167 off Manny Delcarmen, .173 off Mike Timlin, .224 off Eric Gagne and .236 off Okajima.
MANNY RAMIREZ vs. NATURE
Both teams are excellent in the field. The Rockies set a major-league record for fielding percentage, but it was Boston that allowed a majors-low 39 unearned runs. The Coors Field configurations force outfielders to cover more ground than anywhere else in the majors, making Ramirez a major liability for Games 3-5. Something interesting almost is guaranteed to happen in left field.
ORTIZ vs. SECRET WEAPON JEREMY AFFELDT
Don’t be surprised if Affeldt, the Rockies’ second-best lefty reliever, is brought in to face Ortiz in every game of the series. He’s Big Papi’s daddy, getting him out 12 of the 13 times he has faced him. He has struck out Ortiz four times and never walked him. This could be a very big factor in close games.
WORLD SERIES SCHEDULE All games on WFLD-Ch. 32 – All times are Central
GAME 1
Wednesday
Colorado (Francis 17-9) at Boston (Beckett 20-7) 7:35 p.m.
GAME 2
Thursday
Colorado (Jimenez 4-4) at Boston (Schilling 9-8) 7:29 p.m.
GAME 3
Saturday
Boston (Matsuzaka 15-12) at Colorado (Fogg 10-9) 7:35 p.m.
GAME 4
Sunday
Boston (Lester 4-0) at Colorado (Cook 8-7) 7:29 p.m.
GAME 5 – Monday (if necessary)
Boston at Colorado – 7:40 p.m.
GAME 6 – Oct. 31 (if necessary)
Colorado at Boston – 7:29 p.m.
GAME 7 – Nov. 1 (if necessary)
Colorado at Boston – 7:29 p.m.
