When millions of shoppers head to the mall before dawn on Friday in search of deals on everything from televisions to toys, Monica Acquaviva plans to stay home.
The 34-year-old west suburban mother of two says she has had her fill of the traditional post-Thanksgiving shopping frenzy. With so many retailers starting holiday promotions early this year, she managed to find enough bargains to get most of her holiday shopping done before sitting down to turkey dinner.
“I’m not going out at 4 a.m. this year,” said Acquaviva. “I’m taking a year off. I’m looking forward to a nice, quiet weekend.”
Black Friday, typically the busiest shopping day of the year, is losing its sway as the bellwether of the holiday season. Historically hailed by retailers as the start of holiday shopping season, the day after Thanksgiving is losing some of its sizzle as stores race to be first with Black Friday-style bargains weeks ahead of the big day and retailers run out of ways to top themselves with bigger and better deals every year.
Foot traffic is expected to fall 2.5 percent on Black Friday from a year ago and continue at that rate through Jan. 1, according to ShopperTrak RCT Corp., a Chicago-based company that counts shoppers going into stores. The forecast decline follows a 1.7 percent drop for the 2006 holiday season from the year earlier and flat results for 2005, the company said.
Stores will look as crowded as ever, and no doubt TV cameras will be on hand to record the pushing and shoving for some eye-popping deals, but, in reality, fewer shoppers are succumbing to Black Friday buzz, said Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak.
“I think people are just behaving differently,” said Martin. “We’ve seen traffic down throughout the year. We think it’s due to economic pressures.”
As home equity falls, credit gets tighter and gas prices rise, retailers are in a race to get consumers’ dollars before they are spent. Disappointing retail sales in September and October have some retail pundits worried that this holiday season will be the worst in five years.
Most economists are predicting sales will increase 3 percent to 4 percent for the holiday from a year ago. ShopperTrak forecasts a 3.6 percent rise in sales from Black Friday through December from the same period last year, following a 4.8 percent uptick in 2006 and 5.8 percent gain in 2005.
The slowdown has spurred retailers to act sooner than later.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s largest retailer, got a jump on Black Friday by offering what it called “Black Friday prices” every Friday morning since Nov. 2. For the first time, the Bentonville, Ark.-based company is extending its Black Friday deals online on Thursday and into Saturday. In fact, it sent a tongue-in-cheek request to London’s Royal National Observatory to declare this Saturday a Friday to give the retailer an “extra” Black Friday.
Following Wal-Mart’s lead, Circuit City is offering pre-Black Friday specials online on Tuesday and Wednesday, including a $149.99 Canon PowerShot digital camera. Sears has special “wishing hours” discounts online and in the stores for the week leading up to Black Friday. And the Gap has been offering $10 off of every $50 spent through Wednesday.
Even stores that are waiting until Black Friday to make a splash are opening earlier than ever. Not long ago, 7 a.m. was considered door-buster territory. In recent years, stores have been opening at 6 a.m. and 5 a.m.; this year J.C. Penney and Kohl’s are opening at 4 a.m.
And Bass Pro Shops, the outdoor gear store, is offering shoppers a jump on Black Friday by “camping out” at its Bolingbrook store on Thanksgiving night starting at 9 p.m. to get ready for the 6 a.m. opening Friday. Shoppers bring the camping gear; Bass Pro brings the hot cocoa and s’mores.
“Everybody wants to get the customer first,” said Tim Lyons, spokesman for Plano, Texas-based Penneys. “It’s a very competitive world in retail. If folks come to your store first, they may stay longer and buy more.”
Black Friday got its name because the day generates so much volume that it is said to mark the day retailers move from losing money to making a profit, going into the black. The term started to appear in mainstream media in the 1980s and gathered steam as a marketing phenomenon in the past decade.
“Many consumers view it as a big deal, but it’s less important than it was 10 years ago,” said Jay McIntosh, director of retail and consumer products for the Americas at Ernst & Young LLP in Chicago. “Most retailers bring out their Christmas merchandise as soon as they take out the Halloween merchandise.”
Retail consultant Richard Seesel, a former Kohl’s Corp. senior executive, agrees.
“It’s waning in importance,” said Seesel, principal at Mequon, Wis.-based Retailing in Focus. “That being said, it’s a huge volume day for companies that run early bird specials. But once you get past this stampede of customers Friday morning, mall traffic will drop, and retailers will start to sweat things out. Who knows what November sales will look like.”
———-
smjones@tribune.com
The season’s fleeting.
Survive it. Savor it! The Holidaily shows you how, with 50 days of strategies, tips and tales throughout the Chicago Tribune and at chicagotribune.com/holidaily
