Dear Tom,
Does our mild autumn say anything about snow this winter?
John Buechner, Chicago
Dear John,
Unfortunately, no, but you are correct to characterize this autumn as “mild,” the current chill notwithstanding. With an average temperature of 56.7 (degrees) for the period Sept. 1 through Nov. 26 (OM-9Hare data), this autumn is running 3.5 (degrees) above normal.
A computer scan of 48 years (1959-2006) of O’Hare temps identified six years with comparably mild autumns–years whose autumn temperatures were within 1.0 (degrees) of 2007’s 56.7 (degrees). Snowfall in the following winters averaged 40.2″ and very close to Chicago’s normal seasonal snowfall of 39.0″. However, snow in those six winters varied widely, ranging from 17.3″ (less than half of normal) to 58.3″ (one and one-half times normal). This suggests mild autumns, in and of themselves, offer limited if any guidance on the coming winter’s snow.
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Tom Skilling is chief meteorologist at WGN-TV. His forecasts can be seen Monday through Friday on WGN-TV News at noon and 9 p.m.
WGN-TV meteorologists Steve Kahn, Richard Koeneman and Paul Dailey plus weather producer Bill Snyder contribute to this page.
