1. New jobs may start to wane
Worries about the economy seem to have bypassed the job market, where unemployment remains at 4.7 percent. But the good news may be wearing thin. The report for November, due out Friday, may show only 50,000 new jobs being added, down from 166,000 a month earlier.
2. Braking car sales
Blame gasoline that remains stubbornly above $3 a gallon for the chugging pace of the auto industry. A fresh total for car and light truck sales in November arrives Monday, and most analysts are looking for slight slippage from the 16 million unit annual pace a month earlier.
3. How retail rates
With little more than a week remaining before members of the Federal Reserve gather to discuss interest rates, economists will pay unusual attention to Thursday’s reports from discount and department stores. Despite huge outlays for promotional price cuts, some merchants find that consumers remain reluctant to dig deep ahead of the holidays. If the latest sales numbers are uncommonly disappointing, it will add to speculation that the Fed could cut rates by a half-point on Dec. 11.
4. Greenback rebound?
After falling for many months, watch for the swooning dollar to stage a revival. Chicago economist Adolfo Laurenti of Mesirow Financial says “the dollar will stabilize in 2008. Barring a major adverse shock, conditions seem ripe for a partial rebound.” According to The Economist, the price of a McDonald’s Big Mac, in dollar terms, has topped $7.60 in some corners of the world.
5. Earnings crawl
The stock market’s revival from a 10 percent drop has convinced some investors that it’s time to jump back in. But one big worry remains: Corporate earnings are slowing to a crawl. Economist David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch said, “The earnings recession is here and, without pulling any punches, the news is bad.” With most third-quarter earnings out of the way, he is telling clients, “Operating earnings per share fell 8.5 percent, year over year.” Three months earlier, he said, profits rose 9.6 percent.
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wsluis@tribune.com
