This game was played once before, back in the second week of the season. The Patriots dominated, but the Chargers were out of sync then.
The Chargers have become a much more dangerous team, though their injury situation and the weather conditions in New England might work against them. You can be assured coach Norv Turner will be playing the “no respect” card to his 13 1/2-point underdogs.
Patriots offense vs. Chargers defense
The one hope the Chargers have of an upset is creating turnovers. They led the NFL with 48 takeaways and 30 interceptions. The only problem is the formula might not work against the Patriots, who had only 15 giveaways–lowest in the NFL. Laurence Maroney is running exceptionally well for the Patriots, so Bill Belichick can play conservatively if he thinks that is the best way to win this game. EDGE: PATRIOTS
Chargers offense vs. Patriots defense
The Chargers will be able to run the ball on the Patriots–but only if they can establish the threat of a pass to back off the safeties. That won’t be easy if quarterback Philip Rivers and tight end Antonio Gates have to sit out with injuries. No one will be more motivated to win this game than Patriots defenders Junior Seau and Rodney Harrison–both former Chargers. EDGE: CHARGERS * If Rivers plays
Special teams
If the game comes down to a last-second kick, you have to like the Patriots’ chances. Stephen Gostkowski has made 42 of his last 46 field-goal attempts dating back to November 2006. He has made nine of his 10 postseason attempts. Chargers kicker Nate Kaeding has been the most accurate kicker in football over the last three regular seasons. But he is 2 of 6 in four postseason games, including 0 of 4 beyond 39 yards. EDGE: PATRIOTS
Coaching
Norv Turner deserves some credit for getting his team this far. He has taken this team further than Marty Schottenheimer did. Bill Belichick, however, will be the best coach on the field. Of course, he also is the best coach in the league. And maybe in the history of the league. EDGE: PATRIOTS
Key matchup
It will be fascinating to watch Antonio Cromartie cover Randy Moss. Cromartie probably has the best combination of size and athleticism of any cornerback in football. In terms of making big plays, he has been the defensive equivalent of Moss with 10 interceptions, a fumble recovery and three touchdowns.
But Cromartie also is a first-year starter and could be suckered by the slick moves of a savvy veteran such as Moss. Cromartie has the ability to stay with Moss and neutralize him, but to do that he will have to use good technique consistently and not bite on double moves.
It is unlikely the Chargers will move Cromartie around so he always is lined up on Moss because the coaches have confidence in Quentin Jammer as well. The Patriots might be more comfortable with Moss working against Cromartie, however, so they could work to get that matchup frequently. EDGE: PATRIOTS
Prediction
Patriots 27, Chargers 16. It may be impossible for any healthy opponent to beat the Patriots. A compromised team doesn’t stand a chance. EDGE: PATRIOTS
