Sen. John McCain’s hard-fought victory in Florida on Tuesday night propels him into a flood of coast-to-coast primaries on Feb. 5 with the mantle of an all-but-anointed Republican presidential nominee.
Although the Arizona senator was vastly outspent and out-organized by Mitt Romney, the multimillionaire former governor of Massachusetts who is helping to finance his own campaign, McCain fashioned a victory in the fourth-most populous state with the combined support of veterans, senior citizens and a sizable share of Cuban-American voters in South Florida.
“Our victory might not have reached landslide proportions, but it is sweet nonetheless,” said McCain, acknowledging that his campaign had endured some hard times last summer and thanking supporters for sticking with him “in good times and bad.”
The biggest victim of the roiling Republican contest in Florida: Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who banked everything on a victory here and flatly predicted that the candidate who won Florida would become the party’s nominee.
With Giuliani expected to withdraw and endorse McCain on Wednesday in California before a Republican debate there, McCain offered some laudatory words for Giuliani, calling him “my dear friend” and “an exceptional American leader.”
And, in this state where Democrats had refrained from campaigning because the national party is penalizing Florida for voting early, Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York claimed victory, gaining some free media exposure but no convention delegates.
This campaign played out in a megastate which, unlike the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire, is home to a vast and diverse population much like the United States as a whole.
“Florida is — of everything we’re going to see before we get to the general election — a real microcosm state,” said David Hill, a Texas-based Republican consultant.
And McCain’s Florida victory burnishes his credentials heading into next week’s Super Tuesday spree of primaries, from California to Illinois to New York, that could determine the party’s nominee.
“It gives him great momentum going into Super Tuesday,” said Lance deHaven-Smith, a political scientist at Florida State University. Florida, he added, is “a very large, complex state that mirrors the country and shows he’s electable.”
Romney vowed to carry his campaign through Super Tuesday, with his wife, Ann, adding: “We feel as though the conservatives are starting to rally around Mitt. This is just a send-off point. This is not the end.”
But McCain, who carried some solidly Republican corners of this state — including the military-minded Panhandle — also prevailed throughout a swing-voting region of central Florida which also will prove critical to the general election.
The Romney campaign had been banking on the closed nature of the GOP’s primary in Florida, open only to registered Republicans. In automated “robo-calls” to voters on the eve of the primary here, the Romney camp labeled McCain a friend and ally of Sen. Ted Kennedy and even a friend of the Clintons.
A pragmatic vote
Yet many Republicans cast a pragmatic ballot, voting for the one they view as best-suited to win in November.
“I will vote for someone who I truly believe can beat Hillary Clinton,” said a woman offering only her first name, Joan, while voting in Orlando. “I do not want to see the Clintons back in the White House. I think, probably, McCain is the one to beat Clinton.”
While Florida’s contest was a closed party affair, McCain’s victories in states where independents can vote in the primaries delivered a message to Republicans here that McCain may be a winner.
“In a state where 1 in 5 voters are independent, this may have turned them in his favor,” said Susan MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida. “People who have said he is not a Republican purist say, ‘Well, he can appeal to independents.'”
Romney had attempted to capitalize on concern about the economy in Florida, which has borne a large share of the nation’s housing crisis. He questioned McCain’s credentials, citing his rival’s own words about having limited economic knowledge.
Nearly half the Republicans who voted — 47 percent — told pollsters in an exit-survey conducted by The Associated Press that the economy was their top concern. Fewer — 19 percent — said terrorism. And just 13 percent cited the war in Iraq.
The Florida contest essentially had become a two-man race between McCain and Romney as Giuliani saw his support evaporate.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee lost his momentum, too, after losing to McCain in South Carolina and having little money for advertising. He ran no TV ads in this state of 11 distinct media markets where TV advertising is crucial.
McCain touts security
While Romney and McCain sparred over the economy, McCain, a former prisoner of war in North Vietnam, maintained his national security credentials would serve him well.
“Even if the economy is the quote ‘No. 1 issue,’ the real issue will remain America’s security,” McCain told reporters aboard his campaign bus in Tampa on Monday.
Romney, who had the support and formidable Florida organization of former Gov. Jeb Bush’s chief political strategists, had vastly outspent McCain for Florida.
Romney had an 8-1 advantage on television advertising here, according to Nielsen, having run 4,475 ads compared to 470 for McCain up until the week before the primary. But McCain officials insisted they matched Romney in the final week.
Florida, experts note, will quickly be followed by nearly two dozen primaries on Feb. 5 that could seal the party’s deal with McCain.
“Super Tuesday is going to be the first day where you are going to have to spread resources around several states,” Hill, the Texas consultant, said. Florida “will have a tremendous impact. … It could make a difference in the minds of a lot of financiers in helping to decide how to raise the loot it is going to take on Super Tuesday.”
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Florida GOP primary
36%
John McCain
A key win. Will conservatives now embrace him?
31%
Mitt Romney
He has the money to compete hard through Super Tuesday.
15%
Rudy Giuliani
Is that all there is? Without a doubt, the “wait until Florida” strategy was a disaster.
13%
Mike Huckabee
His showing was perhaps just strong enough to deny Romney a win.
3%
Ron Paul
The campaign is now only a cause
– – –
Debate Wednesday
A Republican presidential candidates debate will be broadcast on CNN from 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. Wednesday from the Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif.
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mdsilva@tribune.com
jzuckman@tribune.com
