CUBS
Prediction: 1st, 95-67.
Plus-minus*: + 8.
Pro: After a slow start, they played .578 ball over the last four-plus months without any hitter having a career year. So there’s no reason the Cubs shouldn’t be as good or even a little better. This is a deeper team with Jon Lieber and Ryan Dempster in the rotation and Kosuke Fukudome in right field.
Con: Check the uniforms. This is the 100th anniversary of their last World Series title. In addition to the history, the lack of a high-profile No. 2 starter and established closer are negatives.
Lingering doubt: Felix Pie is trying again to establish himself as the center fielder, but GM Jim Hendry is still looking to deal for either a center fielder or second baseman. Baltimore’s Brian Roberts and Jay Payton could fill both needs.
BREWERS
Prediction: 2nd, 88-74.
Plus-minus: + 5.
Pro: Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun added thunder to an already potent lineup. The addition of center fielder Mike Cameron and shift of Braun from third base to left field should improve the defense, which is essential with a shaky pitching staff.
Con: GM Doug Melvin was forced to rebuild his bullpen, and he did so at the expense of improving a pedestrian starting rotation, which had a 4.55 ERA last year. Yovani Gallardo was sidelined with minor knee surgery in spring training, setting a poor tone for this season. Melvin is crossing his fingers about new closer Eric Gagne.
Lingering doubt: Former All-Star Chris Capuano, who was 0-12 in his last 18 starts a year ago, was told Sunday he has a torn ligament in his pitching elbow.
REDS
Prediction: 3rd, 86-76.
Plus-minus: + 14.
Pro: Dusty Baker knows how to motivate underachieving teams. The Reds’ combination of young talent and a bigger budget that allowed the addition of closer Francisco Cordero gives Baker a chance to pull off another surprise, possibly even contending for a playoff spot.
Con: Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are the only known quantities in the rotation. Veteran Matt Belisle and kids like Edinson Volquez, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto are capable of double-figure victories but lack the track record.
Lingering doubt: There’s no room in the outfield for top prospect Jay Bruce — for now. Adam Dunn, a free agent after this season, could be traded in midseason to add pitching and clear room for Bruce.
ASTROS
Prediction: 4th, 76-86.
Plus-minus: +3.
Pro: With Miguel Tejada joining a lineup that already featured Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and Hunter Pence, Houston could score 800-plus runs after producing only 723 last season. Michael Bourn and Kaz Matsui could score 100 apiece if they hit .280.
Con: Given the state of the pitching staff behind Roy Oswalt, the Astros will have to win a lot of 10-8 and 7-6 games. They have a collection of fourth and fifth starters and will probably experience a downturn in fielding with the aging Tejada taking over for Adam Everett.
Lingering doubt: Did the Diamondbacks know something about Jose Valverde? They are planning to win this season but traded their closer, who saved 47 games in 2007.
PIRATES
Pick: 5th, 74-88.
Plus-minus: + 6.
Pro: There’s no way the Pirates should have had the league’s worst record a year ago. They have too much quality pitching.
Con: They did almost nothing to improve a lineup that hasn’t ranked among the NL’s 10 best since 2003. Their best young hitter, Steve Pearce, is blocked by first baseman Adam LaRoche and left fielder Jason Bay, who hit .204 after June 4 last season. There’s no reason to project more run support for Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny.
Lingering doubt: Ronny Paulino, an All-Star catcher in 2006, reported to camp in great shape but seemed to press at the plate as he tried to re-establish his hold on the job. He needed a strong spring to rebuild his confidence but didn’t have it.
CARDINALS
Prediction: 6th, 69-93.
Plus-minus: -9.
Pro: Tony La Russa won’t make excuses about a thin roster or let his players grow complacent. Albert Pujols is holding up fine despite a frayed ligament in his elbow.
Con: No team in the majors has lost more talent since last season (Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, David Eckstein, Preston Wilson, Troy Percival and Kip Wells, most notably) and La Russa can only cross his fingers about Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder, who are continuing slow recoveries from injuries.
Lingering doubt: Pujols’ elbow has been the subject of much discussion, with him vowing to play until it pops. The guess is he’ll be fine, but the Cardinals might tell him to have surgery if they’re out of the picture by July.
*-predicted gains or losses from 2007.
