Hoping to compete for a playoff spot in 2007, the Minnesota Twins declined to trade Torii Hunter. This steadfast approach failed to produce the desired excitement, both in September and October, and worse yet left the Twins getting only two draft choices when Hunter signed with the Angels.
Rookie general manager Bill Smith, who took over for Terry Ryan after the ’07 season, wasn’t going to let that happen with Johan Santana and Joe Nathan, both of whom were on track to be free agents after 2008.
Santana was traded to the Mets for a package of prospects that probably would have been better if Smith had pulled the trigger on a deal in December instead of January. Nathan figured to be the next domino to fall, but the Twins never put him on the market.
As arguably the best of the veteran closers — having moved past Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner as the others aged — Nathan could have commanded almost as much of a return as Santana. Yet he continued to drop hints that he could be re-signed, then backed up his words by agreeing to a four-year, $47 million extension when Smith put it on the table.
In an unusual arrangement, the pitcher who only works the end of games that his team leads becomes the Twins’ highest-paid player, earning an average of $11.75 million.
You can argue that’s a crazy amount to pay for a hood ornament on a compact sedan, but don’t overlook the message Smith was sending by hanging on to Nathan.
The commitment to the 33-year-old pitcher tells Minnesota fans and players alike that management isn’t content to kill time until 2010, when the Twins are scheduled to move into an open-air, baseball-only stadium.
“A lot of people are counting us out,” Nathan said at the news conference after signing. “We have a good team. We’re going to be good this year. We’re going to be good for years to come. A lot of guys are hungry, and that’s the reason why I’m coming back, because they are committed to winning.”
No organization in the major leagues has been better run than the Twins. They have won the American League Central in four of the last six seasons despite never ranking higher than 18th overall in payroll.
They committed much of their available resources to sign long-term deals with homegrown stars Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer but didn’t have enough left over to keep several valuable parts.
In addition to Hunter and Santana, they have parted ways with right-hander Carlos Silva and second baseman Luis Castillo in the last two seasons. They have survived with stopgap solutions at designated hitter because they didn’t have the flexibility to import an established run-producer. But the farm system has kept delivering parts, making them impossible to overlook.
Can that continue without Santana and Hunter?
In a division that includes two of the best teams in the AL, Cleveland and Detroit, it’s asking a lot for the Twins to absorb so many big losses and remain competitive. But Smith appears to have made a shrewd move by trading for Delmon Young, giving Ron Gardenhire’s lineup a quartet of potential All-Stars in Mauer, Morneau, Young and the underrated Michael Cuddyer.
Along with center fielder Carlos Gomez, acquired from the Mets in the Santana deal, the Twins have identified their core of quality players who they will count on through 2010, when they move into the new stadium, and in some cases even longer.
“I get excited, thinking about that,” Morneau told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. “I get to play with these guys for a long time. We’re going to have Gomez, Young, Cuddy, Joe, and now Nathan. … I want Joe [Mauer] to sign a six-year contract, and then I’ll sign another one, and we’ll both be here until we’re 45.”
Imagine that. The Twins have parted ways with their two cornerstone players since the end of last season and still a rising star like Morneau is enthusiastic about the organization’s future.
That’s the Nathan contract speaking loudly.
BOLD PREDICTIONS
ROGERS FORECASTS THE DIVISION’S BEST
AL Central MVP
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
He’s 24 and getting better. He took the advice of Ozzie Guillen and others and got in shape. He averaged 32 home runs and 115 RBIs over the last four years playing in a watered-down lineup in Florida. What’s he going to do with Curtis Granderson (on the DL with a broken finger to start the season), Placido Polanco, Gary Sheffield and Magglio Ordonez hitting in front of him and Carlos Guillen protecting him? The only downside to the move to Detroit for Cabrera is that he goes from one big ballpark to another. It would have been sick watching him hit at U.S. Cellular.
AL Central Cy Young
Javier Vazquez, White Sox
No veteran pitcher has been better this spring than Vazquez, and it’s no fluke. While the White Sox were disintegrating in 2007, Vazquez quietly turned in a lot more excellent outings than bad ones. He clearly is benefiting from staying in one place after pitching for four teams over four years, and he has bonded with pitching coach Don Cooper and catcher A.J. Pierzynski. He pounds the bottom of the strike zone with quality pitches and is ready to win 20 games if he doesn’t lose too many 3-2 and 2-1 contests.
AL Central Rookie of the Year
Carlos Gomez, Twins
The jury is out for Gomez over the long haul. He doesn’t have the tools of Fernando Martinez, the 19-year-old center fielder the Mets would not give up in the Johan Santana deal. His ceiling might be .275 and a .325 on-base percentage. But if he plays 150 games he will steal 50-plus bases and run into plenty of doubles and triples. His arm is old-school strong, which means he’s going to make ESPN’s Web Gems package on a regular basis.
AL Central Manager of the Year
Eric Wedge, Indians
Detroit has won the off-season, adding Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis and Edgar Renteria, but Cleveland was the more balanced team in 2007 and that’s still the case. Wedge knows his personnel and also players on the other AL Central teams, which might be why the Indians were the one Central team Santana did not dominate. He and GM Mark Shapiro are unusually patient with players they believe in, which in 2008 could produce big leaps forward by corner outfielders Franklin Gutierrez and Ben Francisco.
TELLING NUMBER
4
In the last three seasons, the Central has sent four different teams to the playoffs–Cleveland in 2007, Detroit and Minnesota in ’06 and the White Sox in ’05. That’s true for only one other division: the NL West.
X-FACTOR
Jose Contreras, White Sox
He’s the human barometer. Contreras was the difference between the White Sox being a very good team and one capable of rolling through the playoffs en route to a championship in 2005. He did more than his share in the Sox’s falling out of the playoffs in ’06 and suffering through a miserable ’07. Because he has two years left on his contract, the Sox had little choice but to give him another chance. He’s more important than ever with Jon Garland having been traded. He needs a fast start to build steam.
IN THE WINGS
Francisco Liriano, Twins
When Liriano blew out his elbow last spring, he took Minnesota’s chance to compete with him. He was back on the mound in spring training but hardly looked like the same pitcher who went 12-3 as a rookie in 2006. The Twins opted for a conservative path in his recovery, sending him to the minors to start the season, but are hopeful of getting 25-30 starts from him.
PREDICTED FINISH
INDIANS
Pick: 1st, 93-69.
Plus-minus: -3.
Pro: The Indians don’t have the division’s best firepower, but they do have the best balance — sixth in runs scored, third in runs allowed in 2007 — and all the pieces are back. There is a ton of pitching depth behind C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, who combined to go 38-15 last year. The rotation is seven deep and the bullpen has great arms in Rafael Betancourt, Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez. After pitching well in Game 7 of the ALCS, Jake Westbrook has looked ready to take a major step forward this season.
Con: Closer Joe Borowski strikes no fear into big-league hitters, even though he has 81 saves the last two years. The Indians don’t do him or any of their other pitchers many favors, either, with hit-first catcher Victor Martinez setting the tone.
Lingering doubt: The Indians have been unable to sign Sabathia to a contract extension, making it likely he will leave as a free agent after the season.
TIGERS
Pick: 2nd, 91-71, wild card.
Plus-minus: +3.
Pro: With Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria coming aboard, the Tigers boast a lineup that has perennial All-Star Ivan Rodriguez batting eighth with Jacque Jones ninth. Look for monster seasons from Magglio Ordonez, Gary Sheffield and Cabrera as Detroit makes a run at scoring 1,000 runs. Leadoff man Curtis Granderson could be a major beneficiary.
Con: The pitching staff is vulnerable behind ace Justin Verlander, with newcomer Dontrelle Willis (10-15, 5.17 for Florida) and 43-year-old Kenny Rogers among the question marks. The biggest deficit is in the bullpen, which suffered a huge blow when Joel Zumaya injured his shoulder helping his parents evacuate their house during California’s wildfires.
Lingering doubt: Reliever Fernando Rodney, expected to be the set-up man with Zumaya out, has been bothered by shoulder problems. He will start the season on the DL but the Tigers hope he won’t be gone long.
WHITE SOX
Pick: 3rd, 79-83.
Plus-minus: +7.
Pro: This is a better team than in 2007 with Nick Swisher filling a hole in the outfield, Orlando Cabrera upgrading shortstop and Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink bringing credibility to a bullpen that has been a major liability since 2005. Paul Konerko, Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye should have at least one more season in them as one of the best 3-4-5 combinations in the majors.
Con: Javier Vazquez and Mark Buehrle are the only known quantities in the rotation. It’s a thin roster and there’s not much help left in the minors. The White Sox were the one team that didn’t have a single player among Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects (it included three the Sox traded away — Gio Gonzalez (Oakland), Fautino de los Santos (Oakland) and Dan Cortes (Kansas City).
Lingering doubt: Third baseman Joe Crede could be traded at any time to open up a spot for Josh Fields, who begins at Triple-A Charlotte.
TWINS
Pick: 4th , 72-90.
Plus-minus: -7.
Pro: The Twins always have more than adequate talent in their farm system and will play the game the right way under Ron Gardenhire. While erasing big salaries, the Twins added depth with many newcomers who should contribute, most notably left fielder Delmon Young, center fielder Carlos Gomez, shortstop Adam Everett, third baseman Mike Lamb and right-hander Livan Hernandez.
Con: You don’t lose Torii Hunter and Johan Santana without going backward. Not only were they key producers, both were leaders in the clubhouse. Gardenhire will have to be on the lookout for signs of selfishness as players conclude that management wrote off this season, and probably 2009, as well.
Lingering doubt: Francisco Liriano is back on the mound after missing 2007 because of reconstructive elbow surgery. He appears to be healthy but hardly the phenomenal talent he was as a rookie in ’06.
ROYALS
Pick: 5th, 70-92.
Plus-minus: + 1.
Pro: New manager Trey Hillman should blend well with a young roster loaded with players who have something to prove. The front of the rotation could be very solid if Zach Greinke does his part behind Gil Meche and Brian Bannister. Hillman, who was hired after winning a championship in Japan, stressed fundamentals to an unusual extreme.
Con: Young hitters Alex Gordon, Ryan Shealy and John Buck are learning their craft at the school of hard knocks. Along with Billy Butler, they all need to take big steps forward this season, and that’s asking a lot.
Lingering doubt: Volatile veteran Jose Guillen was a curious choice to bring into a young clubhouse. Kansas City was willing to accept questions about his character as part of the price to pay for having one veteran capable of driving in 100 runs.
* Predicted gains or losses from 2007
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