Nothing scares scouting directors and general managers more than the thought of investing huge money in high school pitchers.
While you can measure the velocity of a fastball and evaluate the nastiness of a slider, the staying power of a teenage pitcher is always a guess. Ditto their level of commitment and ability to stand up to the heat that comes from pitching to the world’s best hitters.
That’s why there were only two high school pitchers taken in the first round of Thursday’s amateur draft — half as many as the college relief pitchers who were selected.
As recently as 2002, there were seven high school pitchers taken in the first round. While that group included rising studs Scott Kazmir, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels and Zack Greinke, there have been only 25 high school pitchers selected in the first round in the last six drafts.
The Dodgers (Toccoa, Ga., right-hander Ethan Martin) and Yankees (Orange, Calif., right-hander Gerrit Cole) were the only teams to go that direction this year. Most teams trusted scouts to find diamonds in the rough deeper in the draft.
And why not? John Smoltz, the future Hall of Famer who has pitched better in big games than anyone else in his generation, was a 22nd-round pick in the 1985 draft. The Tigers found him but traded him to Atlanta when he was only 20, getting veteran Doyle Alexander in a deal that helped them outlast Toronto in a great division race.
Smoltz’s career, which now hangs in the balance as he faces shoulder surgery, illustrates the limits of scouting.
He never had the best stuff in the big leagues. He rarely had the best stuff on his staff. But he has refused to flinch for 20 seasons, which is why he has 210 regular-season victories and 154 saves.
Pitching alongside Greg Maddux for 10 years and Tom Glavine for 15, Smoltz has gone 15-4 in the postseason. He traded blows with Jack Morris into the eighth inning of Minnesota’s 1-0, 10-inning victory in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series.
“I literally gave everything I had every single time I went out there,” Smoltz said. “I just relished it. I could not wait for the big moment, the big game. … This has been the time of my life.”
Smoltz has had four elbow surgeries, including a major reconstruction that kept him from pitching in 2000. He has been trying to pitch through pain in his shoulder the last couple of years. He began the season as a starter and returned from the disabled list as a reliever hoping he could help another competitive Atlanta team in some fashion.
But his shoulder wouldn’t let him function.
“You can tolerate only so much pain,” Braves manager Bobby Cox said. “He always pitched with pain. He always has been the best competitor in the world.”
The team announced Wednesday that Smoltz is done for the season, if not forever.
“It’s a sad day for us in a lot of ways,” general manager Frank Wren said. “We don’t know the outcome of the surgery.”
Smoltz, a golfer strong enough to play regularly with Tiger Woods, is such a competitor that the thought of retirement frightens him. He hopes surgeon James Andrews will give him a chance to pitch again, but no one will know until Andrews actually operates.
“I’m 41,” Smoltz said at a news conference. “I still love to compete. I would retire if the desire is gone in five or six months. I’m not there yet. Not there emotionally. Physically would be the one thing to be determined.”
His longtime teammates can’t imagine life without him.
“Knowing him, I know for a fact this is not going to be it,” catcher Brian McCann said. “He’s going to get back on the field.”
Scouting would be a lot easier if there was a way to know which pitchers have heart, like Smoltz, and which ones don’t.
Managing just fine
Not so long ago, manager Charlie Manuel was among the Phillies’ question marks. But GM Pat Gillick is as smart as they come, and it has become easy to see why Gillick put Manuel in charge.
Last Sunday, Manuel bypassed his most effective pinch-hitter (Greg Dobbs, .444 with 11 RBIs) to send Geoff Jenkins (0-for-9 as a pinch-hitter this season) up to face Marlins reliever Doug Waechter. Jenkins hit a game-tying homer and the Phillies went on to win.
Manuel made the choice of Jenkins over Dobbs because Jenkins is a low-ball hitter and Waechter was down in the strike zone during his warm-ups. That’s managing.
So, too, is sitting a superstar when he needs it. Manuel pulled 2007 MVP Jimmy Rollins in the fifth inning Thursday because he didn’t run out a pop-up, which Cincinnati’s Paul Janish dropped. He wouldn’t answer questions about it afterward, saying only he and Rollins “took care of it.”
Rollins reacted respectfully.
“It’s my fault,” he told reporters. “I can’t get mad at him. That’s like breaking the law and getting mad that the police show up.”
The natural, part II
As long as Josh Hamilton is clean and killing the ball, Reds fans will debate the Hamilton-for-Edinson Volquez deal. But the presence of Jay Bruce makes it easier to understand how former GM Wayne Krivsky could have traded some hitting for badly needed pitching.
Bruce, 21, who was 3-for-3 with two walks in his big-league debut May 27, entered Saturday hitting . 463 with three home runs and 10 RBIs in 11 games. He had been walked nine times while only striking out four — none of which came as a surprise to scouts who watched him hit .364 in Triple A.
“He has great focus and concentration,” Reds manager Dusty Baker said. “Walks are a matter of respect from the other side over what they’ve seen. But he doesn’t go after bad pitches, which is the focus and concentration part.”
The Reds have been force-fitting Bruce into center but are likely to trade either Ken Griffey Jr. or Adam Dunn to create room for him on a corner. Cincinnati entered Saturday 18-12 since its 12-20 start, winning Volquez’s last six starts.
Holding their breath
David Ortiz’s wrist injury is testing Boston’s strength. The beloved Big Papi is wearing a full cast on his left wrist. It will come off for tests after another week or so.
If it is healing, he could be back in a few weeks. But season-ending surgery is the other possibility.
Manager Terry Francona has been using Manny Ramirez as his DH and playing speedy outfielders Coco Crisp and Jacoby Ellsbury next to each other. The Red Sox have been winning without Ortiz, including an angry sweep of the Rays that culminated with Thursday’s Crisp-centric brawl.
Ramirez doesn’t mind the new role, though it might be altered again now that Crisp has been suspended for seven games and Ellsbury (wrist) is hurt as well.
“I love it,” he said. “It’s easy.”
If Ortiz is out for an extended time, the Red Sox could join the Cubs in having an interest in any available left-handed hitters.
The last word
“Right now, we’re not even firing on all cylinders. We have eight guys on the DL. Everyone in the room is pleased with where we’re at right now, given the changes we made, but we’re always thinking the team could get better.” — GM Billy Beane on the Oakland A’s, who swept Detroit last week and have been one of baseball’s biggest surprises.
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progers@tribune.com
