Now that the Cubs have blown away the Brewers, they need to root for them.
Unless they want to face Johan Santana or Cole Hamels twice in the best-of-five first round, they should hope the Brewers can stop their slide in time to force the Mets or Phillies to go to the 162nd game — or, even better, the 163rd — to wrap up the National League’s wild-card playoff spot.
When the White Sox rolled through the 2005 playoffs with an 11-1 record, they went into all three series rested, while their opponents had been extended. They played only two innings against the opponents’ aces: Curt Schilling, Bartolo Colon and Roger Clemens.
Since then, some additional days off have been built into the postseason schedule, making such a scenario less likely. The time between the scheduled end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs has been increased from two to three days.
But that doesn’t guarantee managers can arrange their pitching the way they would prefer. The Cubs could benefit from the three teams-for-two spots battle between the New York, Philadelphia and Milwaukee going down to the wire.
If the Brewers escape with the wild-card spot, the Cubs would face the NL West champ in the first round. But they are set to face the Phillies or Mets if one of them is the wild card.
Both Santana and Hamels are scheduled to work next Sunday, in the 162nd game. If Milwaukee has fallen by the wayside, the aces will be held back for the start of the playoffs. That could be a huge difference facing the Mets, but the recent emergence of Brett Myers (5-2, 2.98 since Aug. 15) makes it less of an issue with the Phillies.
If their teams are assured of playoff spots, there’s no way Philadelphia’s Charlie Manuel and the Mets’ Jerry Manuel will push their pitchers trying to win the NL East (if they are tied, the Mets will enter the playoffs as the champ because of their head-to-head advantage and the Phillies will meet the Cubs in the first round). It’s more important to be ready for the playoffs.
Both NL first-round series are scheduled for seven days, with travel days after Games 2 and 4. If a manager is willing to use his Game 1 starter on short rest in Game 4, he can use his top two starters four times in the five-game series. This neutralizes the advantage of the Cubs’ pitching depth.
Against the Mets, the Cubs are likely to find Santana and Mike Pelfrey as the 1-2 starters. It would be Hamels and Myers (or Myers and Hamels) against the Phillies.
Given their bullpen problems, you probably would rather face the Mets than the Dodgers. But the specter of catching Santana twice is more than a little scary.
Historically, he has been a great workhorse whose performance improves after the All-Star break.
The least threatening possibility would be to go against the Dodgers, who are likely to set their playoff rotation with Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley at the top. But that can happen only if Milwaukee wins the wild card.
The best scenario for the Cubs is for the Phillies, Mets and Brewers to finish with identical records. That would require a Monday playoff between the Phillies and Mets for the East title and then a Tuesday playoff between the loser and Milwaukee for the wild card.
Blown away
For a short time on Thursday, a group of Houston Astros players were wearing T-shirts that read “Bud Killed Us.” It would have been more fitting had they read, “We Killed Ourselves.”
Spin control has been out of control since Hurricane Ike forced Major League Baseball to move two games from Houston to Milwaukee last weekend. Commissioner Bud Selig, as usual, has been the easiest target, but the reality is Selig and his top assistants, including Bob DuPuy and Katy Feeney, worked frantically Wednesday and Thursday to get the series played on time but elsewhere (maybe Atlanta, maybe Tampa Bay).
The problem was brought on by the insistence of Astros owner Drayton McLane that MLB wait to see if the hurricane actually hit Houston, as had been forecast for days. Given McLane’s stance, it’s ridiculous for Astros players to blame their five consecutive losses after the two-day break — beginning with the Carlos Zambrano no-hitter in Milwaukee — on MLB.
Apparently it’s easier to feel sorry for yourself than to get a clutch hit. Houston hitters were 0-for-16 with men in scoring position in those five losses.
Scary finish
The White Sox knocked Cleveland out of the playoffs three years ago, sweeping the Indians in a season-ending series at Jacobs Field. The Indians could get a shot at payback next weekend when they play at U.S. Cellular Field.
With Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez finally healthy, Cleveland is stronger than it was for most of the season. The Indians entered Saturday’s games with a 35-24 record since the All-Star break, the best in the AL Central over that stretch.
The series next weekend, in which Cleveland is scheduled to pitch rookies Scott Lewis and Zach Jackson and Cy Young Award front-runner Cliff Lee, is just as dangerous as the one preceding it, facing the Twins in Minnesota.
Tough love
Whomever the Seattle Mariners hire as general manager should make his first step a bold one — approaching Ichiro Suzuki about waiving his no-trade clause to go to a contender.
Even with the 34-year-old Suzuki collecting another 200-plus hits, the Mariners are such a mess it’s hard to see them contending while their star is still near his prime. Why not trade him for top prospects who can help win in 2010 and beyond?
A six-time batting champ in Japan before joining Seattle in 2001, Ichiro has eight consecutive 200-hit seasons, a feat not done in the majors since Wee Willie Keeler (1894-1901).
The (next to) last word
“We were 16 games over .500. Nobody’s going to tell me we weren’t going to make the playoffs.” — manager Ned Yost after the Brewers fired him.
The last word
“I’m flabbergasted. … They can say what they want, but he turned that entire organization around. He got them dressing and playing like professional athletes, with a lot of enthusiasm. They only have to win a few more games and they’re in [the postseason], and with [CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets], even if they’re not hitting they could get to the World Series, and [the manager] could get a three-year contract and be loved by everybody in Milwaukee.” — Braves manager Bobby Cox on Yost, a longtime coach for Cox.
First hurdle
A look at the performance of the top three starters from the Cubs’ possible playoff opponents since Aug. 15:
%% METS W-L ERA IP
Johan Santana 4-0 1.82 49.1
Mike Pelfrey 3-2 2.47 51.0
Pedro Martinez 2-2 5.66 35.0
PHILLIES W-L ERA IP
Cole Hamels 5-1 2.45 47.2
Brett Myers 5-2 2.98 51.1
Jamie Moyer 4-0 4.02 40.1
DODGERS W-L ERA IP
Derek Lowe 5-1 1.13 47.2
Chad Billingsley 4-1 3.77 43.0
Greg Maddux 1-5 4.96 41.2 %%
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