More Tylenol, please.
The regular season is over, which means it’s time to pass out the hardware for performances exceptionally well done. Frankly, it’s going to take an exceptional performance to get the 2008 awards correct. Statistical analysts and other second-guessers will have a field day when the Baseball Writers Association of America honors players next month, because only two winners are clear-cut.
Thank you, Geovany Soto and Cliff Lee. There’s no question that the Cubs’ catcher is the most deserving candidate for the National League Rookie of the Year Award. Ditto Lee for the American League Cy Young Award. Otherwise voters have a real mess on their hands, in part because of guidelines.
How do you evaluate the impact of players acquired in midseason, such as the Dodgers’ Manny Ramirez or the Brewers’ CC Sabathia? And what about pitchers? Shouldn’t Francisco Rodriguez and Sabathia be considered for most valuable player? Would the Angels and Brewers have made it to the postseason without them? What do you do with a guy like Albert Pujols? Does he deserve the same consideration as a player from one of the NL’s four playoff teams?
The reality is that the voters — groups of 28 for AL awards and 32 for NL awards — apply individual standards, which leads to fascinatingly flawed elections.
For instance, there’s no question that Pujols is the best hitter in the NL. He had the most productive season, hitting .357 with 37 homers and 116 RBIs for St. Louis. He had 50 more walks than strikeouts, an amazing 104-54 given the proliferation of high-strikeout contributors. But can you say he was more valuable than lesser hitters who got their teams into the playoffs?
Ryan Howard isn’t half the hitter that Pujols is. He was 60th among NL qualifiers with a .251 batting average and 14th with an .881 on-base-plus-slugging percentage. He struck out 199 times. But, to quote Hawk Harrelson, don’t tell me what you hit, tell me when you hit.
Howard batted .333 with 15 homers and 42 RBIs after Aug. 21, leading the Phillies to a 24-11 finish that took them from 2 1/2 games behind the Mets to a three-game margin of victory. He hit .320 in 175 at-bats with runners in scoring position, as against .223 in the 435 at-bats when nobody was on second or third.
Nothing against Pujols, whose body of work screams for more than the one MVP he has won, but Howard gets my vote because his hitting won a division title for his team. Tony La Russa made that same point when he endorsed Sammy Sosa over Mark McGwire in 1998.
My 10-player NL MVP ballot would have Pujols second, followed by Sabathia, Ramirez, Soto, Lance Berkman, Chipper Jones, Prince Fielder, Brad Lidge and Mark DeRosa.
The rest of the awards:
AL MVP: Dustin Pedroia
Carlos Quentin might have been the choice, but he slammed his hand against his bat and missed the White Sox’s last 26 games. Justin Morneau could have been the choice, but he finished the season in a 1-for-20 slump, hitting only .221 in the last 19 games, and Minnesota missed the playoffs. So the 5-foot-9-inch Pedroia, was the last legitimate candidate standing.
Without Pedroia, the Red Sox wouldn’t have gone 34-19 in the post-Manny portion of their schedule. He was a force, as Ozzie Guillen recognized by intentionally walking him in late August.
Pedroia led the league with 118 runs (20 more than any other player on an AL playoff team), 213 hits (26 more than anybody else on a playoff team) and 53 doubles (seven more than anyone else on a playoff team). He epitomizes the toughness that makes the Red Sox the team you’d least like to play in October.
The rest of the AL MVP ballot would be Quentin, Morneau, Rodriguez, Josh Hamilton, Kevin Youkilis, Vladimir Guerrero, Evan Longoria, Joe Mauer and Ian Kinsler.
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana
Santana didn’t dominate the NL the way many predicted, but his 2.17 ERA after the All-Star break was enough to lower his overall ERA to 2.54, the best in the league. His 16 wins included a brilliant performance down the stretch and easily could have been 20 if the Mets had had a better bullpen. There were other strong candidates, including Phillies closer Lidge, but this three-player ballot lists Tim Lincecum second and Brandon Webb third.
AL Cy Young: Lee
Lead your league in wins (22) and ERA (2.54) and you’d better win the Cy Young. At least one voter says he won’t give Lee a vote because he cited a neck injury as a reason not to pitch against the White Sox in the Indians’ final game, but it’s hard to imagine how you could vote for anyone else. Roy Halladay could be a unanimous No. 2 choice, and this ballot has Daisuke Matsuzaka third.
What about K-Rod? His record 62 saves were amazing, but relievers shouldn’t factor into voting unless there are no deserving starters. That’s not the case.
NL Rookie: Soto
He was the biggest difference between this year’s Cubs, who won the Central easily, and the group that huffed and puffed to win 85 games in 2007. He hit in the middle of the lineup at times and handled a pitching staff that finished third in the league in ERA. He showed no nervousness in hitting against veteran pitchers or telling them what to do on the mound. Dodgers infielder Blake DeWitt and Braves right-hander Jair Jurrjens are second and third on this ballot, with Reds first baseman Joey Votto also receiving consideration.
AL Rookie: Evan Longoria
Some compare Longoria to George Brett, others to Mike Schmidt. His impact on the Tampa Bay Rays was enormous, both in the middle of the lineup and at third base. He also made a difference in the clubhouse, where his confidence rubbed off on teammates.
Alexei Ramirez would have been a good pick in many years, but Longoria gets the nod ahead of Ramirez and everyone else in a terrific rookie crop. Ramirez is a solid No. 2, and Jacoby Ellsbury gets No. 3 ahead of Texas slugger Chris Davis, Kansas City shortstop Mike Aviles, Detroit right-hander Armando Galarraga, Minnesota right fielder Denard Span and Yankees pitcher Joba Chamberlain.
NL Manager: Fredi Gonzalez
Who’s Fredi Gonzalez? It’s a fair question. Far out of the spotlight, the second-year manager directed the Florida Marlins to an 84-win season. That was a good trick, given that they operated with a $20 million payroll after dealing Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit. Gonzalez had only two pitchers who made more than 20 starts, and he used 11 starters. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Phillies’ Charlie Manuel, the Dodgers’ Joe Torre or even the Cubs’ Lou Piniella win the award. Manuel and Piniella are 2-3 on this ballot.
AL Manager: Joe Maddon
Given Tampa Bay’s stunningly smooth trip to its first playoff spot, this shouldn’t be a tough choice. But the Angels’ Mike Scioscia and the Twins’ Ron Gardenhire, who are second and third on this ballot, are certain to get some first-place votes for jobs well done. Ozzie Guillen is worth consideration as well.
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