Traditionally, a candidate has had to win at least two of the three biggest “swing” states–Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida–to claim the White House. Barack Obama is favored in Pennsylvania. Yet, even if Republican John McCain prevails in tight races in Ohio and Florida, upsets for Obama in either Virginia or North Carolina, both longtime Republican strongholds, could tip the contest to the Democrat.
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States to watch–and when
Watching the results in this historic presidential election will be much like watching the clock–with the most telling signs of who is winning rolling like the sunsets across the country.
Early, important states: Virginia and North Carolina. If Obama carries either, corks will start popping in Chicago. If McCain holds both, it’s a longer night.
Missouri is the critical indicator in the Midwest results, and outcomes in Indiana and Iowa will reveal much about this contest. In the West, all eyes are on Colorado–though results there will be later in arriving.
INDIANA (11 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Long a Republican stronghold, Indiana has not backed a Democratic candidate for president since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Yet the latest polling has portrayed a tossup.
OHIO (20 ELECTORAL VOTES)
No Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio, which has voted for the winner in nearly every election for the past 100 years. Obama held a 6-point advantage in the latest Ohio Poll (conducted by the University of Cincinnati).
VIRGINIA (13 ELECTORAL VOTES)
McCain’s path to victory is difficult without Virginia. And, in a state that Republicans have counted on for years–the last Democrat to win there was Lyndon Johnson in 1964–Obama held an 8-point advantage in the last Washington Post survey. The state’s 5 million voters now stand as a potential key to Obama’s victory, one of a few places where McCain must block him to win.
NORTH CAROLINA (15 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Another Old South state that has trended Republican since Democrats became identified with the civil rights movement, North Carolina has not voted for a Democrat for president since 1976–Jimmy Carter, a Southerner. George W. Bush comfortably carried the state twice. Yet the latest polls show it as a tossup.
PENNSYLVANIA (21 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Pennsylvania has been a swing state for 70 years. Democrat John Kerry carried it with 51 percent of the vote in 2004, as did Democrat Al Gore in 2000. The latest polling there has shown Obama ahead by an average of 8 points. But McCain has fought hard for the state in the closing weeks of the campaign, counting on a base of conservative, working-class white voters.
FLORIDA (27 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Since the 1960s, only Southern Democrats have taken Florida–and not always. Johnson and Carter won there, but Carter also lost Florida to Ronald Reagan in 1980. And Bill Clinton lost the state to George H.W. Bush in 1992, but carried it in winning in 1996. The latest Quinnipiac University Polling Institute survey found Obama holding a 2-point lead.
MISSOURI (11 ELECTORAL VOTES)
A bellwether state for much of the 20th Century–failing to vote for the winner only in 1956–Missouri has been a coveted prize in presidential elections. Bush carried it comfortably in 2004, appealing to conservative voters on “family” issues, but he had a close contest with Gore there in 2000.
COLORADO (9 ELECTORAL VOTES)
Bush narrowly carried Colorado, with 51 percent of the vote in 2000 and 52 percent four years ago, but the latest polling shows Obama with a sizable advantage. Because the state generally votes Republican–choosing Democrats just five times since 1920 (Clinton, Johnson, Harry Truman and Franklin Roosevelt only twice)–any Democrat who wins there is staking a claim to the White House.
NEW MEXICO (5 ELECTORAL VOTES)
A state that Bush only narrowly carried in 2004 and that Gore carried by an even narrower margin in 2000, New Mexico is leaning toward Obama, according to polls. The sizeable Hispanic vote of a state led by a Hispanic governor who waged his own presidential campaign, Bill Richardson, could offer Obama another edge in a sea of traditionally Republican states.
NEVADA (5 ELECTORAL VOTES)
The state has swung from Republican (Reagan in the ’80s) to Democratic (Clinton in the ’90s) and back (President Bush, who narrowly carried the fast-growing state by roughly 20,000-vote margins in his two elections). Union voters and Latino voters have made it increasingly fertile ground for a Democrat, with the most recent polling indicating a close race.
–Mark Silva
Online coverage
Election returns will be widely covered on cable news and network television, but for up-to-the-minute coverage and analysis with a national view and a Chicago perspective, go to chicagotribune.com/swamp and chicagotribune.com as Tribune correspondents Mark Silva and Frank James provide moment-to-moment updates on the presidential race.
