Three important factors in running a successful bluff are defining your opponent’s hand, reading him as capable of laying it down, and sizing bets to represent holdings that will make him do exactly that.
But as World Poker Tour and World Series of Poker winner Bill Edler experienced, sometimes even with those elements in play, it can cost you.
Bill Edler
KING OF HEARTS
10 OF DIAMONDS
The flop
KING OF SPADES
6 OF DIAMONDS
5 OF HEARTS
The turn
9 OF CLUBS
The river
8 OF SPADES
At the $25,000 buy-in 2008 World Poker Tour Championship at Las Vegas’ Bellagio, with blinds at $50-$100, a player in early position limped and the next player raised to $300.
“The normal pre-flop raise would be $300, but with a limper, you would raise to $350 or $400,” Edler said. “When he only bet $300, sirens should go off in my mind–and did–that he may well have a big hand like aces. It’s probably not A-K because people don’t want multi-way action with that.”
A player in late position called, as did Edler from the big blind with K-10 offsuit, and the early limper. The flop came K-6-5 rainbow. Edler and the early limper checked. The initial raiser bet $800. The player in late position folded. Edler called. The early limper folded.
“That didn’t give away his hand, but it’s consistent with aces,” Edler said. “It could be kings or queens.
“I’m certainly not folding to an $800 bet there when I flopped a king. I could check-raise there and get more information, but I’m not wanting to make a big pot out of it.”
The turn came the 9 of clubs, creating a potential straight. Edler checked. His opponent made it $1,800.
“It was three kings or two aces there,” said Edler, who raised $4,000 more. “When you’re bluffing, you always want to put enough pressure on that it’ll work, but isn’t suspicious. I thought that would be about what I would’ve bet if I had made a straight or two pair.”
His opponent called immediately.
“There was no doubt he had aces,” Edler said. “If he had three kings, he would’ve had to think about re-raising.”
The river came the 8 of spades, putting out four to a straight.
“That card made the board so dangerous that I thought that $7,500 was more of a reasonable bet on the river if a man wanted to get paid off by a big pair,” Edler said. “I tried to make it look like a value bet: Against a weaker player, you have to pound them over the head and bet bigger. Sometimes a sophisticated player might lay down a big hand based on the bet.”
Edler’s opponent tanked for a while, then flashed his aces, trying to get a read on Edler, who waved his hand dismissively, acting as if he was trying to hurry a call. But the reverse psychology didn’t work. His opponent called.
“Judged on that hand, it was a very good call,” Edler said. “There was some debate in my corner whether it was. It was easier to make two pair on that board.”
Table talk
Tanked: Short for “went into the tank” when a player thinks for a long time about his next move.
