Bet when you’re ahead, check when you’re not. If only poker were that easy.
In a game of incomplete information, you often bet when you think you’re ahead and then draw additional conclusions from your opponent’s response. Missing a bet can cost you a pot, as a champion from one arena learned from the champion of another.
With blinds at $50-$100 at the World Series of Poker $10,000 buy-in main event at Las Vegas’ Rio Hotel in 2008, Forrest Griffin, then the Ultimate Fighting light-heavyweight champ, limped from middle position with Q-J offsuit.
From late position, Johnny Chan, a 10-time WSOP bracelet winner and back-to-back main event champ in 1987-88, raised to $400 with pocket kings. Griffin called, and the flop came QJ-8, rainbow.
“I never played a hand of poker against Forrest,” Chan said. “I had no idea what he had.”
It might have been possible that Griffin had not played a hand of poker before sitting down in the main event because he did not appear to have an idea of how good a hand he had on the flop. Pre-flop, he was getting more than 2-1 on his money to call Chan’s raise, which was a good price if Chan held A-K offsuit. But Chan’s kings made Griffin more than a 4-1 underdog.
But if you’re going to call a raise with Q-J and then flop top two pair, you need to bet, or at least check-raise. Top two pair is one of the reasons you call with that kind of hand. Instead, Griffin checked. Chan bet $500.
“I figure my kings are good,” said Chan, a cofounder of poker’s popular All In energy drink. “He called and I put him on a pair, maybe with a gutshot straight draw. I put him on something like J-10, Q-10.”
The turn came the 10 of diamonds, potentially completing a lot of straights that a drawing hand might call a pre-flop raise with. Griffin checked again. Chan checked behind him.
“I checked because I figured I was beat,” Chan said, and he was right. He also had been behind on the flop, but had seen no sign that his opponent was stronger.
The river came the 8 of diamonds, pairing the board to give Chan a better two pair. Griffin checked again. Chan bet $1,500 and got Griffin to pay him off.
Griffin missed a chance to build a pot on the flop or perhaps run out Chan with a check-raise. He also missed a chance to take it down on the turn with a bet.
“The whole key was when I checked on fourth street when the 10 came,” Chan said. “I didn’t think my pocket kings were any good. He gave me a free card. You have to know when to check and when to bet. That’s the whole key.”
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Table talk
Gutshot straight draw: A four-card straight draw potentially completed by only one card in the middle.
