With hurricane season officially beginning Monday, federal officials project an average number of storms — but say a complicated climate is making the forecast more uncertain.
14, give or take
Hurricanes will strike the United States this season and Americans must be prepared, federal forecasters said this month. They predicted nine to 14 named tropical storms this year.
Current projections call for a near-normal year for hurricanes, Gerry Bell, lead Atlantic hurricane forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said at a briefing. The named storms are expected to include four to seven hurricanes of which one to three are likely to be major storms.
Regardless of the total number of storms, Bell said, “it only takes one to make it a very bad season.”
Words of warning
President Barack Obama urged residents of hurricane-prone communities on Friday to take responsibility for their own safety and start planning now.
“A lot of these plans are not complicated,” the president said after a disaster-preparedness briefing at the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Individuals should be ready with a supply of nonperishable food, water, first aid kits and radios that will work in the rain, he said.
Be prepared
Have a plan and follow it, said National Hurricane Center chief Bill Read. Waiting to see if a forecast changes can mean life or death.
Added Craig Fugate, head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency: “Hurricanes will make landfall in the United States, hurricanes will destroy homes; people need to heed the preparedness message and be ready to act.”
Competing factors
Global weather patterns are imposing a greater uncertainty in the 2009 hurricane season outlook than in recent years, according to forecasters. Competing climate factors complicate the forecast, Bell noted.
Raising the possibility of a busy season are a high-activity era that began in 1995, which includes:
*enhanced rainfall in West Africa
*warmer Atlantic waters
*reduced wind shear
However, Pacific conditions also can have an impact on Atlantic and Caribbean hurricanes. Current conditions are neutral for warming or cooling of the Pacific sea surface, but if an El Nino warming was to develop, it could weaken Atlantic hurricanes.
2009 storm names
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda
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Whither the weather?
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