Don’t close the book on the 2009 season just yet.
Sure, we have learned most of what we need to know over the last 24 weeks. Yet the two left could go a long way toward providing definition for some intriguing award races, even if nothing changes with the playoff picture.
Consider the two Cy Young races.
No starting pitcher has won a Cy Young Award with fewer than 16 victories after a non-strike season. But the best pitchers in both leagues, the Royals’ Zack Greinke and the Giants’ Tim Lincecum, are sitting at 14 apiece. Their remaining starts will determine if they force voters to consider lowering another standard.
Greinke leads the majors with a 2.14 ERA but has gotten the poorest run support of any of his peers. He faces the Red Sox and Josh Beckett on Tuesday, then is set to catch the Twins next Sunday and again on the final weekend.
Lincecum, who is trying to win his second straight Cy Young, leads the National League with a 2.30 ERA and the majors with 244 strikeouts. He faces the Dodgers on Sunday and the Cubs on Friday and could get an extra start if the push to catch the Rockies in the wild-card race prompts manager Bruce Bochy to use him on short rest.
If Greinke or Lincecum picks up two or three more victories, either would be an easy choice. But if they don’t, they bring candidates such as Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright into the discussion.
Three other awards are just as much in play.
*AL MVP: Conventional wisdom is that Mark Teixeira will be an easy winner. He’s the Yankees’ biggest run producer (.286-35-112 entering the weekend) and is considered to be a difference-maker with his fielding at first base and his lunch-pail approach in the clubhouse. But what happens if the Twins battle the Tigers all the way to the end in the AL Central or even snatch it from them at the wire, as they did in 2006?
Joe Mauer has had a more remarkable season than Teixeira, recovering from a back injury to lead the majors with a .374 average while almost reaching 30-100 levels in home runs and RBIs. His 1.051 OPS ranks behind only Albert Pujols among major-league batting title qualifiers. He hasn’t received as much attention as Teixeira with the Twins hovering around .500 all season. But Ron Gardenhire’s team has won 18 of 27 games through Saturday to close to within two games of the Tigers.
Mauer’s sidekick, Justin Morneau, is out for the season with a stress fracture in his back. If the Twins take this to the wire, he’s a better choice than Teixeira. He might be anyway.
*AL rookie of the year: White Sox fans think Gordon Beckham (.273-12-54 with an .813 OPS entering the weekend) is the cream of this crop, and he is a terrific player. But because he didn’t arrive until June4, he doesn’t have no-brainer numbers. Nobody does, although you can factor in fielding skills and make a strong case for Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus.
Orioles outfielder Nolan Reimold (.279-15-45) and Andrus could take votes away from Beckham. That could bring pitchers such as A’s closer Andrew Bailey (25-for-29 in saves, 1.95 ERA) and starters Jeff Niemann of the Rays (12-6, 3.80), Ricky Romero of the Blue Jays (12-8, 4.22) and Rick Porcello of the Tigers (13-8, 4.21 for a first-place team) into the equation.
*NL rookie of the year: This picture might be the cloudiest of all. You can make a case for nine candidates, and none has put up numbers that make it an easy choice. Phillies starter J.A. Happ has been stuck at 10 victories since Aug.22, returning Friday after missing two turns with a strained oblique muscle. He still might be the guy, but voters are looking harder at Cardinals center fielder Colby Rasmus (.257-15-50) and Braves right-hander Tommy Hanson, a double-figure winner after arriving in June.
Brewers third baseman Casey McGehee (.304-15-58, .881 OPS), a Cubs discard, has the best numbers among rookie position players. The Pirates’ Garrett Jones is homering once every 13.8 at-bats but didn’t get promoted until July1. Also likely to pop up on some ballots: the Marlins’ Chris Coghlan, the Rockies’ Dexter Fowler, the Diamondbacks’ Gerardo Parra, the Cubs’ Randy Wells and the Dodgers’ Ronald Belisario.
In control, always: Barring a miracle, the Braves are going to miss the playoffs for the fourth year in a row. But Bobby Cox continues to show why he’s the best manager living, if not the best manager who ever lived.
Year in and year out, Cox has wrung the most out of his teams by keeping the focus on baseball, not celebrity nonsense. The three-tiered playoff format did him no favors, contributing to his Braves winning only one World Series in their 14-season playoff streak.
Two games below .500 at the All-Star break, the Braves climbed to 10 above .500 entering the weekend. They had won seven in a row to climb to third in the wild-card race, 4 1/2 games out.
Thinking globally: The season that started one week late to accommodate the World Baseball Classic is ending with some of the top prospects playing in the World Cup in Europe. This is a true festival of baseball, with games in Germany, Sweden, Spain, the Czech Republic, Croatia, the Netherlands and Italy.
White Sox prospect Lucas Harrell is on the U.S. staff but hasn’t pitched his way into a big role.
The last word: “I’m sure there is no really perfect man, but Ernie comes as close as anyone I’ve ever met. He has made me a better person just by being around him.” — Hall of Famer Al Kaline on his former Tigers broadcast partner, Ernie Harwell, who has inoperable cancer.
———-
progers@tribune.com
