August LEI: It’s all about the economy, right? Amid declarations that the recession may be over come predictions of when we’ll return to growth and how robust it will be. A startling prediction came late last week from Barclays Capital, which projected 5 percent growth in next year’s first quarter. A peek at future conditions comes Monday, with the release of the August leading economic indicators: Economists are projecting a 0.7 percent increase, which would be the fifth consecutive month of gains.
Fed funds rate: Federal Reserve policymakers gather this week, with a policy announcement due Wednesday. Don’t expect a change from the rock-bottom fed funds target rate, but there are rumblings from analysts that rates will rise next year.
Durable goods: Manufacturing has shown signs of life of late, and another reading comes with Friday’s report on August durable-goods orders. Economists expect a slight uptick after July’s roaring 5.1 percent increase, which came on the back of surging aircraft and defense orders.
New-, existing-home sales: Home sales will be in focus with August existing-home sales Thursday and new-home sales Friday. Analysts expect the former to climb for the fifth month in a row, and the sixth consecutive month of gains in the latter.
Stock watch: The stock market hasn’t seen many triple-digit gains lately, but it’s had a steady march upward, advancing in nine of the last 11 sessions. Last week saw a 2.2 percent advance in the Dow industrials, leaving it up 3.4 percent for September.
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