There was a lot of talk last week about scaling back the Bears’ offense.
But that missed the point. It wasn’t the Bears’ offensive ambition that prevented more points against the Browns — it was the Browns’ defensive ambition.
The Browns came at the Bears with an ultra-aggressive, high-risk defensive game plan. The shame is the Bears weren’t able to exploit it for big plays.
So the Bears should leave their offensive playbook alone. But they might want to consider scaling back these things:
1. Excessive bleeding by the quarterback.
2. Masquerading as a team that uses the Wildcat. Halloween is over.
3. Allowing dust to gather on the helmet and shoulder pads of Devin Aromashodu.
4. Attempts to turn Greg Olsen into John Gilmore.
5. Use of the phrase “and we go from there.”
Comprehend the trend The dread zone offense
Against the Browns last week the Bears had seven possessions inside the red zone. Very nice.
They averaged 3.2 yards per red zone possession. Not very nice.
The red zone impotency has been a year-long trend. The Bears have scored touchdowns on only 44.4 percent of their red zone possessions, which ranks 25th in the NFL. They have scored points on 74.1 percent of their red zone possessions, which ranks 29th.
Even though they have run more plays in the red zone — 90 — than any team in the league, the Bears have scored only 108 red zone points — 15th in the league.
What are the problems inside the 20? Two things, mainly — pass protection and ball security.
Quarterback Jay Cutler has a 65.8 passer rating in the red zone, which ranks 24th among NFL starters. The average passer rating in the red zone is 88.5
Cutler has not played well in the red zone, but it isn’t all his fault. He has not been helped much by his offensive line, which has given up three sacks and had two false starts inside the 20. Those are drive killers.
Cutler interceptions have snuffed out three more red zone drives.
The Bears have had four giveaways in the red zone — second most in the league. They actually have fumbled four times inside the 20 but lost only one of them. Even fumbles the offense recovers can be drive killers because they usually have the effect of a loss of down, if not a loss of yardage and down.
So if the Bears want more red zone success, they must protect the ball and the passer better.
Front office chess Two Cardinals who could have been Bears
The Bears will be trying to pummel and pound Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin on Sunday at Soldier Field. But those Cardinals might have been on the other sideline if the Bears had gotten their way.
The Bears made a run at Boldin at draft time. Boldin was unhappy with his contract and had asked to be traded. The Bears offered the Cardinals a second-round pick, but the Cardinals were interested in trading Boldin only if they could get a first-round pick.
The Bears did not have a first-rounder to give because of the Cutler deal, so the trade talks died.
As for Warner, the Bears wanted to sign him when he became a free agent in 2005. The Giants had benched him in favor of Eli Manning, so his stock was as low as it ever had been.
When Warner visited Halas Hall, the Bears offered him a chance to compete with Rex Grossman for the starting job. But Warner and agent Mark Bartelstein got the feeling — the correct feeling — that the Bears really wanted Grossman, their first-round pick two years earlier — to be their starter.
Bartelstein saw that Warner’s only competition with the Cardinals would be Josh McCown, so he sold Warner to then-Cardinals coach Denny Green with a highlight tape. Warner signed with the Cardinals instead.
The Bears decided not to sign an established veteran in the off-season. Instead, they let Grossman compete with Chad Hutchinson. But Grossman broke his ankle in an exhibition game, Hutchinson bombed and the Bears were forced to start an unheralded rookie named Kyle Orton.
If the Bears had signed Warner instead of the Cardinals, it’s safe to say they would have been a much different team these last five years.
Numbers games Call him Mr. Reliable
Devin Hester gets notoriety for being flashy, but he hasn’t been called “dependable” very often.
He should be.
Hester has caught 74.5 percent of the balls thrown his way, according to STATS. Only three starting wide receivers in the NFL — the Dolphins’ Davone Bess, the Steelers’ Hines Ward and the Texans’ Kevin Walter — have caught a higher percentage of passes thrown to them.
Five wide receivers who are not starters also have caught a higher percentage of passes.
Of the top starting wide receivers in receiving percentage, Hester’s average per catch of 13 yards ranks second behind only Ward’s average of 14.3.
STATS labeled six of the 12 passes to Hester that weren’t caught as poor throws. Two were passes that were broken up. Hester was charged with only one drop.
What’s more, Hester has been a consistent weapon on third downs. He has been thrown to 11 times on third downs and has caught eight passes, each of which has resulted in a first down. Only two players in the league have a higher percentage of first down conversions per third down receiving attempt.
That’s why it’s so important to the Bears that Hester, who is listed as questionable because of a right ankle sprain, is able to play Sunday.
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SCOUTING REPORT
Larry Fitzgerald, Wide receiver
Information from this report was obtained from NFL scouts.
Larry Fitzgerald, the 26-year-old Cardinals wide receiver and three-time Pro Bowler, was unstoppable in the 2008 postseason, setting NFL records with 30 catches for 546 yards and seven touchdowns.
He has been less productive this season than last. His average per catch has dropped from 14.9 yards to 10.8 as opposing defenses have focused their game plans on stopping him.
At 6-foot-3 and 217 pounds, Fitzgerald has a great catching range and knows how to use his body to create separation. He has excellent hand-eye coordination and can extend his arms to catch balls away from his body. No receiver is better at getting the ball in a crowd. His hands are huge and very consistent.
He is not the fastest or most explosive receiver, and it takes him a few steps to build to full speed. But if he catches the ball on the run on a post or slant, he can go the distance.
The Cardinals move Fitzgerald around and will put him in motion. They often will try to flood a zone with Fitzgerald and other receivers, forcing defenders to make a choice.
The best way to guard him is with a big, physical, athletic corner shadowing him and then with a safety over the top. Defenders should keep Fitzgerald in front of them and give him a little cushion — that should minimize his ability to run after the catch.
— Dan Pompei
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dpompei@tribune.com
