It’s a simple bit of arithmetic, but you have to wonder if anyone in the General Assembly has bothered to punch it into a calculator.
The just-released 2010 census puts Illinois’ population at 12,830,632. As a result, the $15 billion borrowing plan that Gov. Pat Quinn has floated for paying the state’s bills would mean $1,169 of additional debt per capita. That’s on top of the $160 billion in debt and unfunded liabilities the state has racked up already.
The tax and borrowing numbers keep changing as Quinn and legislative leaders keep talking. But you get the idea.
Now for the really bad news. That burden falls on a state population whose numbers will be under increasing pressure in years to come.
For decades, the Midwest has expanded at a much slower rate than the Sun Belt. The latest data show Illinois ranking behind every other Midwest state except Michigan, which lost population. Between 2000 and 2010, we grew just 3.3 percent, barely one-third of the national average for those 10 years.
The relatively weak growth will cost Illinois a congressional seat, but it could be worse. The state got off easy, thanks to the housing bust.
Demographers such as Kenneth Johnson at the University of New Hampshire believe the timing of this most recent census, coming as it did in the teeth of a brutal recession, helped moderate the relative decline in Illinois and other flagging states.
That’s because the most dramatic swing factor in the state’s population isn’t births and deaths, but migration: How many people move in and out.
Over the last few years, millions of Americans had to stay put because of excess mortgage debt and other housing woes, not to mention a poor job market and postponed retirement plans. As the economy bounces back, however, the population of Illinois is likely to suffer as more of its residents pack up and go — especially those with the higher incomes now being targeted to fund state government. Unless the U.S. unexpectedly throws open its borders, immigration won’t come close to making up the difference.
There’s more bad news: Although the government hasn’t released detailed census results yet, it’s likely that Illinois on average has grown older. Aging populations tend to be less enterprising, preferring stability to the economic risk-taking that produces growth and opportunity. At the ballot box, a grayer Illinois would tend to favor benefits for the old at the expense of the young, which spells trouble for educating productive workers of the future.
None of this means the state is necessarily headed for a Michigan-style demographic disaster. We have tremendous strengths, including a skilled work force , central transportation and, in Chicago, the region’s undisputed capital city.
But given the reality of our population trends, there are natural obstacles to economic expansion in this state. Every dollar borrowed in Springfield will have to be paid back, but there will be a modest base of residents available to do that. As government services dwindle under the overwhelming pressure of debt repayment, the state will become that much less attractive for residents and employers.
Somebody, please, lend the General Assembly a calculator.
