Less than a year and a half from the 2012 presidential election, a poll last week offered surprising and unwelcome news for President Barack Obama. A Washington Post-ABC News poll of registered voters found that if the presidential election were held now between Obama and Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor would win, 49 percent to 46 percent. Of course, polls that far ahead of the balloting tend to be unreliable predictors. Some examples:
June 2007
The poll: Hillary Rodham Clinton led Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination, 35 percent to 23 percent, according to Democratic-leaning respondents to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
The reality: Obama was elected president 17 months later.
October 2003
The poll: A Tribune poll of likely voters showed 45 percent were undecided about the 2004 Senate nomination, 16 percent backed Maria Pappas and 12 percent favored Daniel Hynes. A state senator with a funny name, Barack Obama, had 9 percent.
The reality: Obama won the Democratic nomination with 53 percent and won the general election with 70 percent.
June 1999
The poll: A hypothetical (at the time) matchup of George W. Bush and Al Gore in the 2000 presidential race showed Bush way ahead, with 53 percent to 36 percent, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
The reality: In an incredibly close election that is still being argued about, Gore won the popular vote but Bush won the vote that counted — in the Electoral College.
April 1991
The poll: Gallup respondents gave President George H.W. Bush an approval rating of 78 percent after the Persian Gulf War, and a little-known Arkansas governor named Bill Clinton was the first choice of only 1 percent of Democrats.
Reality: Nineteen months later, Clinton beat Bush by six points.
June 1983
The poll: Former Vice President Walter Mondale led President Ronald Reagan 49 percent to 45 percent, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
The reality: Reagan won re-election in a landslide, 59 percent to 41 percent.
And on nonpolitical events …
December 2010
The poll: Sports Illustrated surveyed NBA players, and 69 percent picked the Lakers to win the 2011 NBA title. Also in the hunt were the Boston Celtics (22 percent), Miami Heat (3 percent), Orlando Magic (2 percent) and San Antonio Spurs (1 percent).
The reality: Only 3 percent of respondents still have a chance to be right, because the Heat and the Dallas Mavericks are battling it out in the finals.
September 2010
The poll: According to 67 percent of respondents in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll, Osama bin Laden was unlikely to ever be captured or killed.
The reality: Bin Laden was killed eight months later.
April 2010
The poll: A Pew Research Center/Smithsonian survey found that 64 percent of respondents think printed newspapers will cease to exist by 2050.
The reality: Who knows? But based on the other surveys, don’t bet on it.
