Well, we probably never will know what Carmine thinks of the Cubs because Theo Epstein left his cherished computer program behind with the Red Sox.
But the Cubs baseball boss and his top assistants certainly have access to Carmine-like information.
Make no mistake, sabermetrics will influence considerably what Epstein does with his Cubs this winter as did for him in Boston.
Short term, Epstein signed low-salary, high-producing free agents such as David Ortiz. Long term, he drafted players such as outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury and second baseman Dustin Pedroia, who are among the leaders in almost every important category for baseball’s “numbers” believers.?
So are computers and the Cubs compatible? Or are they a combustible combination??
You might be surprised at the results — or what appear to be the results — based on programs designed to estimate player value via statistics.
And, then again, maybe not, considering the 91-loss season just endured.
Epstein hasn’t offered any deep insights on roster restructuring yet, but his Red Sox past offers snapshots of his “Theo-ries” of what makes a baseball player good.
And much of it revolves around Carmine-produced answers even though Epstein argues human eyeballs and insight matter as much as data input and statistical analysis.
In any event, Epstein is inheriting a ballclub far inferior to that of the 2002 Red Sox. That team won 93 games; last year’s Cubs lost 91.
But before we get too involved in the who-stays, who-goes game, let’s explain that sabermetrics has a language all its own and very few people should claim mastery of it.
And we also should note Epstein has stressed computer analysis weighs only half in his decision-making, that breathing scouts supply the other half.
“Carmine never made a decision for us,” Epstein said last week. “It’s not like sitting there on the table in the conference room. … Basically, it’s a tool that would put together the big picture.”
Basically, it’s a tool of the new reality at Wrigley Field, where WAR does not stand for Waveland Avenue Reclamation, but Wins Above Replacement.
How much that statistic plays into Epstein’s total evaluation isn’t known because each computer program is weighted differently, but beyond Matt Garza (5.0 WAR), Starlin Castro (3.4) and Darwin Barney (2.2), the Cubs are in trouble, according to Jason Roberts of the sabermetrics site fangraphs.com.
Alfonso Soriano still is owed $57 million but “is coming off a season in which he made outs in 71.1 percent of his plate appearances and produced 1.3 WAR.”
Now, it could surprise some critics, but two potential Cubs free agents actually score well in WAR, Aramis Ramirez (3.6) and Carlos Pena (2.6).
WAR is just one of myriad statistics worth analyzing. But there’s also OPS (on-base plus slugging percentages), RC (a formula for number of runs created) and SecA (a complicated formula that combines hits, walks and stolen base efficiency), and UZR (a formula to find a defensive player’s range).
And that’s just scratching the surface of what probably was fed into Carmine for analysis. Sabermetrics savants love walks and hate sacrifice bunts and stolen bases.
“Theo (and his people/process/systems) have as good an understanding of how to value players as anyone in baseball,” Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein wrote in an email. “It’s not just about drawing walks, or even advanced metrics like VORP or WARP, it’s about breaking down everything … into multiple areas to measure.”
One category known to be near the heart of Epstein (and therefore new general manager Jed Hoyer) is P/PA, or pitches seen per plate appearance.
“Baseball is complex,” Epstein explained last week. “There’s no one way to play the game. I do think a big part of the game revolves around the box right around home plate both for pitchers and hitters.
“So … the hitter’s job is to know the strike zone … not so you can walk. That’s sort of a happy symptom of the approach, not the end-all.
“Probably the most important thing to do (for a hitter) is not make an out. (If you) hit for extra bases, all the better. (Seeing more pitches) has an effect that builds. … It leads to scoring runs. Scoring runs leads to wins.”
That’s also part of the reason the Red Sox and Yankees play four-plus hour games (perhaps a preview of future days at Wrigley?).
In fact, Yankees’ MVP candidate Curtis Granderson led all of baseball with 4.44 pitches per appearance (the Red Sox’s Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis were ninth and 11th).
The top Cub was Pena at 14th, while Barney was 76th, Castro 111th and Soriano 114th. Soriano was actually one spot ahead of the Cardinals’ Albert Pujols, just for the purists’ enjoyment.
Third from the bottom in pitches seen among all players was Ramirez.
Another category for the computer crowd is RC or “runs created,” which had three Red Sox in the top 10 in baseball.
The top Cub was Ramirez, despite the low number of pitches seen, at 24th. Castro was 35th, Pena 50th and Soriano 129th.
And then there’s “secondary average,” with the Blue Jays’ Jose Bautista leading baseball at .571. Granderson was next at .461 and Pena fourth at .442, even though his “real” batting average was .225 and he struck out 161 times.
Soriano was 64th and Ramirez 70th.
Then there’s the new old reliable — it has become very popular in even old-school circles — OPS, or on-base plus slugging percentage.
Bautista and the Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera, not surprisingly, led with an OPS of more than 1.000, while three Red Sox were in the top 10.
Ramirez was 28th, Pena 48th, Castro 76th and Soriano 84th.
“(But Epstein) doesn’t look for just one type of player, he simply looks for value, understanding that it can be provided in a variety of ways,” Goldstein wrote.
The bottom line is the Cubs are a mess, whether you are a new-school thinker or old-school believer.
Carmine and the Cubs?
Garza is definitely a Carmine player, part of the reason Epstein wanted him in Boston.
Shortstop Castro and second baseman Barney — Epstein is a huge believer in building up the middle — appear to be important pieces for the future. Catcher Geovany Soto and center fielder Marlon Byrd, on the other hand, not so much, to say the least.
Ramirez and Pena could be valuable if they would sign for another one or two years. Bryan LaHair, despite his minor league seniority, is statistically viable.
Epstein has hinted more than once that this offseason will be one of signing mid-level free agents who stack up well statistically for the price. He calls it “understanding the supply-and-demand dynamic.”
He employed it upon arriving in Boston, signing the supposedly washed-up Ortiz for $1.25 million and Bill Mueller for $2.1 million.
They became great WAR, OPS players in Fenway Park, key components for the championship run in 2004.
“If you buy low on guys, if you find the right free agent character-wise, ability-wise, the next thing you know, maybe your outlook is a lot brighter for the (longer) term,” Epstein said. “We didn’t know we were getting (future star) Big Papi, we thought it was David Ortiz. …
“At Fenway we had the (Green Monster) … and the ultimate was a guy like (switch-hitter) Bill Mueller, who from the left side was an opposite-field guy and was a pull guy from the right side. All of a sudden he gets to Fenway and hits .325.”
So, in the new world of the previously old-school Wrigley Field, acronyms become more important than nicknames.
And Big Blue — or whatever the new model is named — will become more important than failed blueprints of the past.
Tribune reporter Phil Rogers contributed to this report.
Twitter @davandyck
