(David Rohde is a Reuters columnist but his opinions are his
own.)
By David Rohde
AMMAN, May 23 (Reuters) – U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry
and 10 European and Arab foreign ministers gathered in Amman,
Jordan on Wednesday night to again talk about helping Syria’s
rebels.
Even as the international community discusses “grand
strategy,” Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is taking decisive
action.
With the help of thousands of fighters from Hezbollah, Iran
and Iraq, he is close to achieving some of his largest military
gains in two years.
Kerry, in a press conference, played down Assad’s military
advances as “very temporary.” In truth, the Syrian leader and
his foreign backers are gaining the upper hand in the conflict.
The Syrian opposition is in disarray. Approving a major
American military intervention is politically impossible in
post-Iraq Washington and a rift between Saudi Arabia and Qatar
has slowed their delivery of weaponry to the rebels.
Diplomatically, Washington’s key interlocutor is Russian
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, one of Assad’s primary
international defenders.
One key factor favors Assad’s survival. Assad, his Allawite
allies, Hezbollah and Iran are “all-in” inside Syria. They are
hurling vast amounts of manpower, weaponry and money into the
fight.
On the other side, supporters of Syria’s rebels are still
trying to decide just how much assistance to offer. There is a
strategy, but it is incremental.
The American “grand strategy” is threefold.
First, increase military aid to the rebels, but not American
aid.
Last month in Istanbul, Saudi Arabia and Qatar promised
additional military assistance to General Salam Idris, the
military leader of moderate Syrian opposition forces. They also
pledged to curtail their support to the hard-line Islamist
fighters who now dominate the opposition on the ground in Syria.
A senior State Department official who spoke on condition of
anonymity said the Saudis and Qataris appear to be keeping their
word. They have supplied weaponry to Idris’s force and their
shipments to hard-line Islamists appear to be slowing.
“Indicators are good,” the official said, “but we want to
see more.”
Meanwhile, American diplomats are trying to unite Syria’s
fractious opposition. Since the head of the Syrian National
Coalition, Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib, resigned last month, the group
has struggled to name a leader. In Syria, the Istanbul-based
coalition is still regarded as ineffectual. It is Islamist
groups, flush with weapons, cash and hardened fighters, that
dominate.
This week, the opposition council will expand from 60
representatives to between 90 and 100 members. This larger group
will then choose a prime minister and other leaders.
Finally, Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will host
peace talks next month in Geneva. Theoretically, the opposition
will be more militarily powerful and politically united.
At the same time, Russian officials have said that Assad’s
prime minister, Wael al-Halqi, will attend peace talks in
Geneva. The United States has also quietly dropped its
objections to Iran being allowed to have some role in the talks.
In a best-case scenario, increased military support for the
rebels and Russian pressure force will force Assad to bargain
seriously. The centrifugal forces now unraveling Syria, from
sectarian tensions, and jihadist fighters to foreign funding,
will ebb.
“We don’t need more proof that now is the time to act,”
Kerry said in his opening statements at the talks here. “What we
need to do is act.”
American officials agree that their strategy depends on
changing Assad’s calculation. “The balance of power on the
ground must change,” said the senior State Department official.
Given the extent of support Assad is receiving from Iran and
Hezbollah, that appears unlikely. Hezbollah fighters are playing
a crucial role in the battle to take the strategic town of
Qusayr. Iranians are now advising Syrian government units in
Qusayr and around Damascus. Members of Iraqi Shia militias are
fighting alongside Assad’s forces in several battles.
Assad and the Iranians are winning. If the Obama
administration and its European and Arab allies want to support
the rebels, they must do so now.
For the last two years, Washington and its allies have
carried out a half-intervention. They provide enough aid to
prolong the conflict but not enough to end it.
If the Obama administration and its allies are not going to
sharply increase military assistance, their false talk of
decisive aid should end. More empty rhetoric will prolong the
bloodshed.
(David Rohde is a columnist for Reuters, two-time winner of
the Pulitzer Prize and a former reporter for The New York Times.
His latest book, “Beyond War: Reimagining American Influence in
a New Middle East,” was published in April.)
(David Rohde)
