The Sunday, April 17 race card at Laurel Park with Gabby Gaudet’s analysis and selections.
Race 1: Post time 1:10 p.m.
Selections: Colton’s Grand, Frasero, Love Rules All
Colton’s Grand stretches out to the mile today but has been effective at 7 furlongs in the past. I think he’ll be able to manage his speed and be in a controlling position from the outside. Trainer William Campbell is 17 percent with a positive $2.98 ROI with dirt horses going from sprints to routes at Laurel Park. Frasero has put in some clunkers recently but it looks like he may be rounding back into form. Maybe he’s not the same as he used to be but I look for an improvement today. Love Rules All enters the Keisy Cartagena barn who does well with lower level claimers on the dirt. Look for him to forwardly placed and transition his form from Gulfstream Park.
Race 2: Post time 1:43 p.m.
Selections: Cooking Up a Storm, Homeboykris, Risky Guy
Homeboykris got the better of Cooking Up a Storm when they met each other last out. That was a legitimate effort by the winner, who got a perfect stalking trip. I think we could see Cooking Up a Storm sit a but closer today and possibly turn the tables. Both horses love the 7-furlong distance so I give both of them the edge over this field. I’ll cap it off with Risky Guy who could show speed from the rail. He beat a quality field for the level last out and has won at this tricky distance before.
Race 3: Post time 2:14 p.m.
Selections: Andrasta, Guilty Twelve, Wednesdays Only
Andrasta was hung in for the price tag on the dirt a few starts back and hasn’t managed to find the winner’s circle yet. However, her turf races were against far tougher and in the latter half of the turf season when the turf was very soft. In her route turf race she was part of a contested early pace and faltered against a winner who went on the win a Grade 3 at Del Mar and Gone Away who is now Grade 3 placed. Guilty Twelve makes her stateside debut for a barn that does well with horses coming off similar time. She’s well bred to handle the lawn. I’m never a big fan of turf sprinters stretching out to two-turns and that’s the case we get with Wednesdays Only. Is she a closing sprinter or will she like the added real estate? We’ll find out today.
Race 4: Post time 2:44 p.m.
Selections: Jumpin Julian, My Team, Breezed Bayou
Both Breezed Bayou and Amain exit the same race where there was a lot of bumping going on during the stretch. Breezed Bayou was the heavy favorite and had to be taken up just before the wire due to Amain shutting off his path. That said, I don’t really trust either of them. I’ll go to Jumping Julian, a horse who has faced open company. This’ll be a big class relief now finding the “never won two races” condition. My Team looks like he’s been clocking nice workouts in the morning since the new connections acquired him but it’s not really a vote of confidence that this horse was good enough to compete against graded stakes company in the past and now dropped in for the $7,500 tag off the August layoff.
Race 5: Post time 3:14 p.m.
Selections: J C’s Not Brown, Relentless Ride, Minor Legend
J C’s Not Brown enters first off the claim into the Jamie Ness barn. It goes without saying, the barn does very well improving horses off the claim whether turf or dirt. Like that this horse stretched back out to a longer distance and has speed from the outside to get into position early. Minor Legend has room to grow. His maiden victory last season was visually very impressive against a legitimate local field. I like that he’s improved his numbers on the dirt, now getting back to arguably a more preferred surface we could see a huge step forward from his October turf effort. Where is Relentless Ride best? Sometimes he finds himself dueling on the lead, other times he shows the patience to stalk. There are several others in here that are faster early; that could give him ability show a new dimension.
Race 6: Post time 3:53 p.m.
Selections: Sirenage, Unfazed, Like a Million
Trainer Alan Goldberg sends Sirenage out for the first time, a beautifully bred 3-year-old filly by Quality Road out of a nice turf family on the bottom side of her pedigree. She’s kin to several talented turf runners like Danon Go Go, a Group 3 winner in Japan and earner of over $800k, and Melhor Ainda a Grade 3 winner (Grade 1 placed) turf mare. Unfazed ran well last out in an originally carded turf race that was run on the main track. She should be able to use her speed to her advantage from the outside post. She too is very well bred for our, out of a Grade 2 winning turf mare. Several other contenders exit the same race where multiple were bumped around at the break. I thought Like a Million was the most effected at the break and was taken way too far back to be a factor. Look for an improved effort.
Race 7: Post time 4:24 p.m.
Selections: Street Cruizer, High Ridge Road, Freudie Annie
Street Cruizer will have to prove she can take her speed and stretch it out to a longer distance. She’s bred to handle the mile and farther and I like the slow progression in distance. Last out she was bumped several times during the stretch and put in an intimidating position. Today she figures to be on or near the lead. High Ridge Road is one of the more accomplished in the field. She was narrowly beaten by a horse who came back to win a two-other-than allowance/optional on December 13 but what was her excuse last time? Freudie Annie has the potential to press Street Cruizer and have the upper hand tactically. However, in her last dirt race she was 4th in a 5-horse field and those runners haven’t done much outside of NY-bred restricted races.
Race 8: Post time 4:54 p.m.
Selections: Union Et Force, Magician’s Vanity, Love’s Illusion
I’ll take a shot here with Union Et Force off the layoff. Rewinding back to her race in October, she was never really given a clear chance to run. She broke poorly, checked several times out of the gate, and continued being checked the entire race. Maybe she’s had time to mature? Not to mention that was not an easy field she faced. The winner of that one is now a graded stakes winner and several others have since run well against allowance company. Love’s Illusion well outran her odds last out and that should give her credence against this company today. The company she’s kept on the turf in South Florida has been steep and she’ll face slightly shallower waters here. Hitting Spree has the potential to take a step forward after facing winners for the first time last out. She’s also complimented by the fact that the second place finisher Insta Erma came back to win a tough allowance/optional claimer at Gulfstream Park next out (86 Beyer Speed Figure).
Race 9: Post time 5:24 p.m.
Selections: Mothernaturespell, Nicki Flash, Miss Glengar
Two attributes that make Mothernaturespell tough in here are recency and back class. She faced tougher last out, and although won on the lead, doesn’t necessarily need it. Plus, her main contenders are coming off layoffs and have been known to need a race or two off the shelf. Nicki Flash is one of the aforementioned runners that we haven’t seen in a while and she tends to runs best second or third off the shelf, however she’s proven more versatile in her running style which will help. Miss Glengar has been successful in the past facing open company and the race could set up for her given the pace scenario. Can she fire off a May 2015 layoff?
Best Bet: Race 2 – #4. Cooking Up a Storm
Price Play: Race 3 – #11. Andrasta
