Whichever political party owns the suburbs owns the White House and likely the majority in Congress. That trend has, with a few exceptions, held true for many years. It was Republican weakness in the suburbs that ushered in the 2018 midterms, when Democrats won their largest number of House seats since Watergate in 1974. In 2020, Joe Biden rode a wave of suburban and independent voters to victory. But just two short years later, Biden and the Democrats are poised to squander those gains in stunning fashion. National trends show Republicans dominating the generic ballot on average by 3.5 points — some polls show the number as high as 7 points.
Driving this precipitous drop is, as James Carville famously diagnosed, “the economy, stupid.” Record inflation, soaring gas prices, half-empty grocery carts and an unstable economy are top of mind for Americans of all political persuasions. And nowhere is that more apparent than the suburban voters who delivered Democratic victories in the previous two cycles.
But while it’s tempting to assume the suburbs are a lock for Republicans this year, there’s a lot more nuance to the suburban congressional districts making up half of the electorate. And with the national debate focused on a fight between the extreme policy doctrines of each party’s base, the views of a lot of voters in the middle are being missed.
If anyone knows that suburban voters are a different animal, it’s me. I spent four years in Congress representing Chicago’s North Shore — at that time, the bluest Republican-held district in the country. While the suburbs are poised to reject liberal policies that are straining their family budgets, we can’t assume those voters’ frustrations with liberal overreach will mean conservative candidates will prevail in 2024. Treating suburban voters just like those in ruby-red districts will get you nowhere fast.
That’s why I’ve joined with fellow former Reps. Barbara Comstock and Mimi Walters to launch the Suburban Project, a group focused on the conservative policies that speak to those moms and dads who eschew the political extremes. We recently surveyed 600 suburban voters across 25 newly drawn suburban districts. In the districts we surveyed, presidential candidates Mitt Romney won by 6 points, Hillary Clinton won by 2 points and Biden won by 8 points.
Overall, Republicans lead Democrats on the generic ballot by just 2 points — but among independents, that lead expands to 7. The Republican Party image is a bit more favorable among independent voters, but among those who dislike Donald Trump and disapprove of Biden, the Democratic Party is underwater by a whopping 76 points. And by a 4-point margin, suburban voters now think the Republican Party will better address their top priorities.
But there are warning signs in the data that show the policy debate is missing the mark in the suburbs. Continuing the trend from 2020, Republicans are losing college-educated women in the suburbs by 18 points. And when it comes to the former president, a majority of suburban voters say Trump should not have much or any influence on the direction of the Republican Party. In fact, suburban independents are less likely to vote for a candidate who is supported by Trump, by 49%.
On the issues, suburbanites don’t fall into easy buckets. Our survey shows these voters fully support funding the police and punishing repeat offenders, but they also back common-sense gun regulations like universal background checks, and they want police reform in the wake of the killing of George Floyd. On education, 69% of independents think parents should have a lot or some influence over what K-12 public schools teach, but when asked about critical race theory in schools, independents simply don’t view it as a motivating issue. And by a 13-point spread, suburban voters prefer a candidate who supports requiring businesses to offer paid family and medical leave for workers.
Now there are some within the Democratic Party who will say, “Wait, this will all change if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade.” Yes, our research does show suburban voters would be more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate if Roe is overturned, but the margins aren’t overwhelming. Digging deeper, 46% of suburban respondents said it wouldn’t make a difference in their vote. An anti-abortion candidate who supports exceptions in cases of rape, incest and the life of the mother comes in at 40.1%, while a candidate who is pro-abortion rights but supports some restrictions to ban late-term abortions and abortions after 20 weeks comes in higher, at 47.5%. Looking at what is being discussed in Congress now, it’s clear the Democrat-driven fight for the ability to obtain an abortion on demand is not a message that resonates in the suburbs.
There is less than six months left until the midterms, which is still a political eternity — but if one thing is clear from recent polling, there’s no issue on the horizon that will allow Democrats to hold the suburbs. Republicans are poised to make significant gains. The next question must be how we ensure the candidates running to represent the suburbs are focused on the policies that address these voters’ concerns over the long term. That will require building a strong bench, fostering a debate about the issues that matter and coming up with fresh ideas to tackle the most intractable issues we face.
With the extremes dominating the debate, it’s time for the suburbs to show their strength.
Bob Dold is a former Republican U.S. representative for Illinois’ 10th Congressional District.
Submit a letter, of no more than 400 words, to the editor here or email letters@chicagotribune.com.
