Illinois isn’t shrinking after all. That’s the good news from the updated U.S. Census figures released last month.
The bad news is the Land of Lincoln still lost a seat in Congress, and people continue to pull up stakes and head to more-welcoming and affordable states. Like the couple from a Lake Villa Township community who are bolting north for the land of milk and cheese, Spotted Cow brew and lower taxes.
“Bye, bye B******” were the words on the text sent to friends, neighbors and relatives from the couple, who both work for firms headquartered in Lake County. That was underneath a screen shot of their recently issued Lake County tax bill.
It listed a tax of $10,000 on a modest ranch sited on a dead-end street. They are trading that home for another ranch a hair over the Wisconsin line, and expect to cut their tax bill in half.
That’s in addition to buying cheaper gasoline with their Illinois salaries, utilities, housing and school costs in Wisconsin. Along with reasonable vehicle license fees.
The Prairie State may have grown by 250,000 souls between 2010 and 2020, according to the new census data, but longtime Illinoisans continue to vote with their feet, fleeing to the safety of neighboring states. I’ve lost count of people I know who have left for Indiana, Iowa and Wisconsin, or those who talk of heading to Tennessee.
The U.S. Census Bureau at first said the state lost about 18,000 people. Follow-up figures from the Census Bureau’s “post-enumeration survey” determined Illinois’ population had been undercounted.
Politicians from both sides of the aisle have played the numbers game since the 2020 census figures were released last year. The initial population loss was the first since Illinois became a state in 1818. That news had a lot of tongues clucking.
Republicans pointed to Democrat leadership of a high-tax state when it looked like we lost population. Since the new data, Dems have ballyhooed the census gains. Illinois, they say, remains a viable destination for folks and business.
Like the state’s location in the middle of the nation, somewhere in between lies the noise over the recent demographic windfall. “These latest numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau show that Illinois is now a state on the rise with a growing population,” Gov. J.B. Pritzker trumpeted.
Gov. Sunshine may be ecstatic, as would an elected official seeking reelection in November when the population figures jibe with his politics. In truth, other states, including several of our low-tax neighbors, are growing faster. Sunbelt states have been growing even more rapidly.
Indeed, states considered to be undercounted in the decennial head count were Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi, Tennessee and Texas. Probably overcounted, demographers now believe, were Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island and Utah.
The early estimate was that Illinois’ population was undercounted by 1.97%, or about 250,000 people. According to a Chicago Tribune report on the data, the population could have been undercounted by as much as 440,000 people or 3.43%, or as little as 65,000 people, or .51%.
Obviously, the state’s suburban areas continue to grow. Rural Illinois and parts of the city of Chicago continue to contract.
Debate over the exodus of Illinoisans should be part of the fall gubernatorial campaign, once Republicans figure out who will be their standard-bearer after the June 28 primary. The Land of Lincoln’s anemic population growth the past 10 years should have been a subject for consideration years ago.
Officials have known substantial out-migration patterns have existed for some time. Still they failed to do anything meaningful — lower property taxes, trim fees, rein in energy costs — to persuade folks to remain in the state, to make Illinois affordable for residents and business interests alike.
As for the Lake County couple packing up for what is termed Westosha, that area west of Kenosha, Wisconsin: Alas, they are not deer hunters. No venison sausage in my future.
Charles Selle is a former News-Sun reporter, political editor and editor.
Twitter: @sellenews
