This week, China marked the 80th anniversary of Japan’s defeat in World War II with a parade displaying its military might and global draw. Honored guests included a who’s who of authoritarians, from Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian to Kim Jong Un of North Korea and Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar’s junta chief. Leaders of more than 26 countries were present.
Tanks rumbled through Tiananmen Square, a location that offered a stark reminder of how authoritarian states can violently crush democratic movements. Xi was flanked by Putin and Kim, two brutal and aggressive dictators whom many nations would rather shun. The message this sent to ruthless leaders around the world was that a Chinese-led order would not judge them for their transgressions.
With most U.S. adversaries present, this was a show of unity in opposition to America’s global leadership. Perhaps more cutting, though, was the presence of some of America’s friends, such as Vietnam. The leaders of Turkey, Egypt and India did not join the parade, but they participated enthusiastically in the summit preceding it.
That summit was the annual gathering of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which Xi used to make his case for a Chinese-led alternative to the U.S.-led world order. That new order would be dominated by fellow authoritarians such as Putin, rather than the West. Unlike the liberal order that had shaped global affairs since World War II, no one in this new collective gets brownie points for championing inclusive democracy. Doing so might even earn suspicion.
The Economist called the summit “one of the largest get-togethers of autocratic regimes in living memory,” and this club is expanding its influence in the world by exploiting America’s self-destruction on the global stage. Xi pitched it as “true multilateralism” that takes “a clear stand against hegemonism and power politics.”
Xi’s effort to dominate the world stage isn’t new. But, at a time when the U.S. government is conducting foreign relations like a mob boss, his call has a new appeal. He can now credibly offer China as a more reliable and predictable alternative to a fickle America.
And it’s paying off. China’s state-controlled capitalism, once reason for skepticism and distrust, has become a preferable alternative to Trump’s erratic trade war, even for traditional U.S. allies.
The prominent presence of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was a particular coup for Xi. The U.S. government had been cultivating a close relationship with India for two decades, specifically to counter China’s influence in the region. It seemed a sound bet, given the fraught history between China and India, with a border dispute going back some 60 years and deadly clashes as recently as 2020.
But Donald Trump’s harsh 50% tariff on India has suddenly made the hard work of mending fences with China a lot more appealing. Trump claims the tariff is in retaliation for India continuing to buy Russian oil, but that argument doesn’t hold because China buys far more and has faced no such scrutiny. Rather, it seems based on a personal feud, since Modi refused to nominate Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize or to let him take credit for India’s ceasefire reached with Pakistan after military clashes in May.
The split screen couldn’t be starker. While Xi is convening nations in multilateral dialogue, Trump is punishing countries we had long called friends because they won’t submit to his personal will. Like India, Brazil is a major rising power of the Global South that Trump is driving away with 50% tariffs, in this case for the offense of prosecuting its former president, Jair Bolsonaro, for orchestrating a coup in 2022 to attempt to stay in power after losing the election. Trump apparently can’t tolerate the example it sets.
Xi is taking advantage of an opening created by American chaos. But the alternative liberal order built on free trade and democratic values no longer has an obvious global champion anyway, as the United States has explicitly left that role to embrace an international approach grounded in bilateral threats and dealmaking instead. The great power contest today seems to be between who will lead an increasingly autocratic world, and China is moving into the lead.
China’s path to global domination is not necessarily an easy one, though. Many countries, particularly across Asia, are wary of its expansive appetite, manipulated economy and potential for aggression. But, as former President Joe Biden frequently said, “Don’t compare me to the almighty; compare me to the alternative.” China is taking that approach. And, given America’s track record lately, more countries seem to be warming to it.
Elizabeth Shackelford is a program director with the Institute for Global Affairs and a foreign affairs columnist for the Chicago Tribune. She also is a distinguished lecturer with the Dickey Center at Dartmouth College. She was previously a U.S. diplomat and is the author of “The Dissent Channel: American Diplomacy in a Dishonest Age.”
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