No president has ever been as good as Donald Trump at one thing: changing the subject. He gets away with a lot through his skill in distraction. Barely has the public had time to absorb one troubling action before he takes another. The impossibility of keeping up breeds apathy and stymies opposition.
But sometimes the news dominates him rather than the other way around.
His long association with Jeffrey Epstein has become a focus of outrage. In the documents released so far, Trump’s name appears some 38,000 times. Last week, CNN and other outlets reported that the Justice Department withheld records that a woman who said Epstein abused her at age 13 also accused Trump of sexually assaulting her.
Launching an aerial war against Iran serves to pull some attention away from that unsavory topic, at least for the time being. It also changes the subject from inflation, corruption and the brutal tactics of his immigration agent goons.
Trump may hope that Americans will rally behind a campaign to rid the world of a bloody terrorist regime and give an oppressed people a chance at freedom. More likely, he’s giving unhappy voters a reason to be even more unhappy.
That was before additional American casualties occurred, with more doubtless coming. It’s also before the results play out in Iran, which could be disastrous.
There are many ways the war could go badly. It could invite a spectacular Iranian attack on American forces in the region, like the 1983 bombing of Marine Corps barracks in Beirut. It could lead to violent chaos as factions battle for control, as Barack Obama’s 2011 air war in Libya did.
The war could bring to power a more extreme ruler and rally Iranians against the “Great Satan.” It could provoke Iran’s proxies to carry out terrorist attacks on U.S. bases abroad or even on the American homeland. It could raise gas prices and boost inflation.
Trump may also find himself forced to take far greater risks to achieve his goals, whatever they are. On Monday, he said the war could go on for four to five weeks or even longer, and he refused to rule out sending U.S. ground troops.
The political hazards of an ill-fated war are obvious. Harry Truman won the 1948 election by a comfortable margin, but four years later, amid the Korean War, he lost the New Hampshire primary and ended his bid for another term. Lyndon Johnson won the 1964 election with a gaudy 61% of the vote, but by 1968, the Vietnam War had damaged his public standing so badly that he, too, stood down.
George W. Bush had overwhelming public support for the 2003 invasion of Iraq but barely won reelection in 2004. Public disenchantment with the Iraq war did much to power Barack Obama’s unlikely victory four years later.
Costly, interminable and unsuccessful wars are not a formula for presidential popularity. But neither is victory. George H.W. Bush oversaw the 1991 Gulf War, which ended in a quick and stunning triumph. Bush attained a popularity other presidents could only imagine, with 89% approval. But gratitude is not a quality of the American electorate. By November 1992, a weak economy had eclipsed all of Bush’s achievements on the world stage. His Democratic opponent, Bill Clinton, accused him of spending too much on foreign affairs, and Bush lost.
A more reflective president than Trump might realize that going to war carries serious political risks. That’s especially true today because the public is so fed up with forever wars — a sentiment that helped him get elected twice.
He’s already alienated some of his most loyal supporters. Former GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene said the president and his subordinates are a “bunch of sick (expletive) liars. We voted for America First and ZERO wars.” MAGA idol Tucker Carlson called the war “absolutely disgusting and evil.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio didn’t help the “America First” case when he said that the U.S. had to attack Iran because Israel was about to do it.
Trump should know that politics can be unfair. If this war goes badly, voters will blame Trump and his party in November. And if it goes well, voters will forget.
Steve Chapman was a member of the Tribune Editorial Board from 1981 to 2021. His columns, exclusive to the Tribune, now appear the first week of every month. He can be reached at stephenjchapman@icloud.com.
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