A baseball strike on Aug. 6, as the players have authorized, would ruin a great institution of American sports, a pastime in which millions take part at the risk of emotional and financial well-being.
It`s the office pool.
Somewhere, all those $5 and $10 bills are stuffed in envelopes, waiting until the season ends to be paid out. A strike means no end of the season. No end of season, no payout.
Look no further than the charts (below) for a solution. By employing simple mathematics, the final standings can be projected from team
performances during the first half of the season.
The projections are based on runs scored by each team and its opponents before the All-Star break. According to statistician Bill James, an estimate for the ratio of wins to losses can be calculated by dividing runs squared by opponents` runs squared. From this formula, dubbed the ”Pythagorean Theorem” by James, winning percentages can be derived and standings produced.
The Pythagorean Theorem does nothing more than state mathematically what is obvious intuitively to the guy in the bleachers: Score more runs than the other team and you`ll win.
This year`s projected division champions will be California in the American League West, New York in the AL East, St. Louis by a landslide in the National League East and San Diego in the NL West.
Each year, some teams perform much better than predicted by the formula, others much worse. The differences average out to about plus-or-minus two wins, so the prediction of a race won by four games or fewer has a good chance of being wrong. According to the predicted standings, the Yankees should win by two games over the Blue Jays, meaning it`s really too close to call.
The Dodgers had won more games by the break than their run totals would have indicated. They had been outscored 320-313, yet were on top of the NL West. At their current scoring pace, their expected final winning percentage is .489, good for a tie for third.
The A`s were outscored by a run during the first half but posted a .529 winning percentage. The Reds were outscored by nine runs; they`re a surprising three games over .500.
It is possible for a team to be outscored and win a division, but not probable. The Mets were outscored last season by 24 runs and still won 90 games. During the first half this year, the Mets played 51 percentage points better than expected, although they did outscore their opponents by 19 runs.
The Cubs? The prediction is third place if they score and are scored upon in the same proportions during the second half as they were in the first. The Sox have done well to stay close to .500. The numbers say they`re a fourth-place team.
Of course, if no strike occurs, the office pool can be decided the old-fashioned way: between the white lines. It`s more fun, anyway.
