Secretary of State George Shultz is unlikely to clinch a date for the next superpower summit during two days of talks here this week, but he may be able to hasten a pullout of Soviet troops from Afghanistan, Western diplomats say.
While nuclear arms control remains atop the agenda when Shultz meets with the Soviet leadership Monday, the diplomats predict the greatest opportunity for tangible results will come in discussions of regional conflicts.
”Looking at our agenda for areas of progress, I would look precisely in one very important area, and that is Afghanistan,” said a senior American diplomat who will join Shultz when the secretary arrives here Sunday.
The diplomat, who requested anonymity, described recent Soviet proposals to end the eight-year Afghan conflict as ”a real step forward,” but cautioned that ”not all of the questions have been answered.”
The Middle East and the Persian Gulf war will also figure prominently in the talks, said the diplomat, who requested anonymity. Shultz will ask for clarification of a Kremlin-proposed Middle East peace conference, which could receive White House support if it led to direct negotiations between the Arabs and Israel, he said.
Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, who is scheduled to meet Shultz on Monday, has pledged to begin withdrawing Soviet troops from Afghanistan by May 15 if a peace treaty is completed in Geneva by March 15.
The next round of talks there is set for March 2.
Shultz will press for guarantees that the USSR will refrain from supplying weapons to the Afghan army to fill the vacuum left by departing Soviet troops, the diplomat said, and will argue for a withdrawal timetable shorter than the 10 months offered by Gorbachev.
At a stopover in Helsinki Saturday en route to Moscow, Shultz said
”there are a lot of elements in the schedule to be worked out,”
especially which Soviet troops will move out in the first phase of withdrawal. On his plane en route to Helsinki, Shultz told reporters: ”It is only sensible for us to cease supplying the military material to the freedom fighters if the Soviets similarly cease similar supplies to the government forces. There has to be some symmetry there.”
Shultz, who is scheduled to meet with Soviet dissident Andrei Sakharov on Sunday night, said human rights and emigration issues would have ”pride of place” in his talks with Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze and Gorbachev. This week`s talks are the first of three Shultz-Shevardnadze sessions scheduled to be held before President Reagan and Gorbachev meet at a planned summit conference in Moscow this spring.
Shultz also said at a Helsinki news conference that he thought it
”unlikely” that the Soviets were awaiting Senate ratification of the INF treaty before moving ahead on talks to reduce by 30 to 50 percent the overall U.S. and Soviet arsenals of long-range weapons.
Late last week, first deputy foreign minister Yuli Vorontsov told Pravda, Communist Party daily, that an Afghan peace treaty could be signed quickly if Washington presses Pakistan, a U.S. ally, to drop ”artificial obstacles.”
He specifically criticized a Pakistani demand that a new coalition government be set up in Kabul before the pullout begins. The USSR argues that the composition of a postwar government is a matter to be determined by the Afghans alone.
The Middle East also is expected to figure prominently in the talks. One day after returning to Washington from Moscow, Shultz is to depart for Jerusalem. The senior diplomat said Shultz will ask his Soviet counterparts for clarification of a Kremlin-proposed Middle East peace conference.
”We want to explore the desirability of the conference-what type, who will attend, its objectives,” he said.
If the conference contributes to direct negotiations between the Arabs and Israel, then it may receive White House support, he added.
U.S. officials in Washington have said that Shultz ”most likely” will visit Syria during his Middle East trip and is leaving his options open for a return to the region in early March.
Shultz`s purpose in going to Damascus would be to discuss the U.S. drive for Arab-Israeli negotiations with Syrian President Hafez Assad, whose support for any settlement in the Middle East is considered essential by the State Department`s Near East bureau.
Reinforcing the impression that U.S.-Syrian relations are warming was a disclosure Friday by State Department spokeswoman Phyllis Oakley that security clearance requirements on Syrian applicants for U.S. visas had been lifted. Until now, all such applicants had been subjected to lengthy background checks.
A visit by Shultz to Damascus would be a major prestige boost for Syria and would mark an improvement in its relations with the U.S. The country is one of six listed by the State Department as supporters of terrorism, and President Reagan imposed sanctions against it in November, 1986.
Also on the agenda is the Persian Gulf war-of-attrition between Iran and Iraq, which Shultz is expected to explore in his sessions with Shevardnadze.
The United Nations Security Council last summer passed a resolution calling for a ceasefire in the gulf war. The U.S. has called for a new resolution to enforce the ceasefire and an arms embargo, but the Kremlin has not agreed to new U.N. action.
The high-level Moscow negotiations are the first of three Shultz-Shevardnadze sessions scheduled to be held before President Reagan and Gorbachev meet at a planned summit conference in Moscow this spring.
Washington and Moscow have said the summit will be held as scheduled-most likely in late May or June-even if a treaty halving strategic nuclear arms is not agreed on by that time. Both sides blame each other for the slowdown at arms-control talks in Geneva.
Washington and Moscow have said the summit will be held as scheduled-most likely in late May or June-even if a treaty halving strategic nuclear arms is not agreed on by that time. Both sides blame each other for the slowdown at arms-control talks in Geneva.
