It`s impossible predict to how many trades will be consummated during the winter baseball meetings, which open here Monday, but there appear to be two best bets: Baltimore`s Eddie Murray, a onetime slugging first baseman, to the Dodgers-reportedly already a done deal; and Dale Murphy, Atlanta`s all-star outfielder, to the Mets.
Here`s a team-by-team run-down of some of the more likely events(in order of their 1988 finish):
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
New York Mets: Of all the big-league clubs, the Mets are in the best position to trade because of their enormous depth of talent at both the major- and minor-league level. Despite the recent denial of General Manager Joe McIlvaine, Mets are still in pursuit of San Diego catching prospect Sandy Alomar Jr. McIlvaine also willing to send three front-liners to Atlanta for Dale Murphy. Most likely to go are outfielder Lenny Dykstra, infielder Howard Johnson and pitcher Rick Aguilera. Also believed to be available: shortstop Kevin Elster, second baseman Tim Teufel and reliever Roger McDowell.
– Pittsburgh: Pirates want quality shortstop, such as the Cubs` Shawon Dunston, but don`t appear to have much to offer in return. If unable to acquire Dunston, rookie GM Larry Doughty would lower sights and settle for San Francisco`s Jose Uribe. Will deal veteran outfielder Gary Redus, shortstop Felix Fermin and reliever Jeff Robinson.
– Montreal: GM Dave Dombrowski initiated trade talks with Cubs` Jim Frey during the World Series for one purpose only: to land Dunston. Stymied, Dombrowski has since expressed interest in Ozzie Guillen of the White Sox and Dick Schofield of the Angels. Sox will not deal Guillen.
– Cubs: Primary need is for an established late-inning reliever. Also seeking back-up catcher and right-handed pinch-hitter.
– St. Louis: Not likely to be active. Cardinals made their big deal during latter part of season with acquisition of slugger Pedro Guerrero from Dodgers. Willing to part with veteran outfielder Willie McGee, shortstop Ozzie Smith and possibly third baseman Terry Pendleton. Have been in pursuit of Yankees` Don Mattingly, who is not on the block.
– Phillies: Desperate for pitching, starters or relievers. Would trade veteran infielder Juan Samuel and outfielders Phil Bradley and Von Hayes.
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Los Angeles: Possibly only club willing to inherit final three years of Eddie Murray`s lucrative five-year contract. Baseball`s highest-paid player, Murray will earn $2.65 million in `89, $2.86 million in `90 and $2.96 in `90. For Murray, the Dodgers are reportedly set to give up young outfielder Mike Devereaux, rookie shortstop Juan Bell and one of these relievers: Alejandro Pena, Tim Leary or Ken Howell. Dodgers also need replacement for second baseman Steve Sax, signed by the Yankees.
– Cincinnati: Shopping first baseman Nick Esasky and left-handed reliever Rob Murphy in hopes of landing established power hitter. If unable to deal, would dip into free-agent market. Principal target is veteran slugger Mike Schmidt.
– San Diego: Padres, coming off one of their best seasons, will not stand pat. Jack McKeon, still doubling as the front-office boss and field manager, has been a busy and creative trader, earning nickname of ”Trader Jack.”
Padres are looking to shore up left side of infield. Also seeking right-handed reliever. On the block: Pitcher Eric Show and catcher Sandy Alomar Jr. most attracive players available.
– San Francisco: Manager Roger Craig, at the moment, has one pressing need-a power hitter to protect Will Clark. Giants will deal Jose Uribe, a slick-fielding shortstop, outfielder Candy Maldonado and reliever Scott Garrelts.
– Houston: Seeking RBI man (either Atlanta`s Dale Murphy or Kansas City`s Danny Tartabull) and bench strength. Available: pitchers Bob Knepper and Dave Smith (27 saves last season) and outfielders Kevin Bass and Billy Hatcher. Also trying to re-sign strikeout king Nolan Ryan, a free agent who is listening to bids from other clubs.
– Atlanta: Have two shortstops to burn, Andres Thomas and Jeff Blauser, but Dale Murphy is principal bait. If Murphy is used in a deal, Braves are expected to intensify negotiations with Red Sox for Jim Rice, an aging outfielder. Boston is eager to unload Rice, so much so it`s willing to pick up a healthy portion of his hefty $2.45 million 1989 salary.
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
Oakland: Seeking established second baseman and outfield replacement for Dave Parker, who has lost much of his youthful speed and will be relegated to DH role. Pitching-rich A`s became even richer last week when, in a surprise maneuver, they signed free agent Mike Moore, giving them five better-than-average starters.
– Minnesota: Six untouchables: pitchers Frank Viola, Jeff Reardon and Allan Anderson, outfielder Kirby Puckett, third baseman Gary Gaetti and first baseman Kent Hrbek. Everybody else available.
– Kansas City: Having just signed veteran catcher Bob Boone, only other pressing need is for late-inning closer, a successor to the departed Dan Quisenberry. Willing to deal pitcher Floyd Bannister and outfielder Tartabull. According to one unconfirmed report, Tartabull is headed for Toronto for reliever Tom Henke.
– California Angels: Starting pitching disaster area. Willing to trade second baseman Johnny Ray and shortstop Dick Schofield, but best hope for improvement may be in free-agent market. In vigorous pursuit of pitcher Nolan Ryan.
– White Sox: Need a bunch but, at this moment in history, Drs. Reinsdorf & Einhorn willing to settle for established second baseman. Former Yankee Willie Randolph, now a free agent, could help resuscitate ailing franchise.
– Texas: Front-office boss Tom Grieve resting easier after re-signing shortstop Scott Fletcher, but still not satisfied. Help needed at third base and in the outfield, where Pete Incaviglia will no longer roam; he will DH. Veteran knuckleballer Charlie Hough available in right deal; also veteran first baseman Pete O`Brien, which is a surprise, considering his all-around value.
– Seattle: Offering right-handed reliever Mike Jackson, who could be a sleeper: Last season, right-handed hitters, combined, hit .169 against him. Outfielder Mickey Brantley and third baseman Jim Presley also on the block.
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
Boston: Seeking left-handed reliever to work in late-inning tandem with Lee Smith. GM Lou Gorman has already nixed deals that would have given him lefties Rob Murphy of Cincinnati, Scott Bailes of Cleveland or Don Carman of Philadelphia. According to usually reliable Back Bay source, if Red Sox are unable to re-sign free-agent lefty Bruce Hurst, Gorman will defy Beantown feminists and try to trade for Houston`s Bob Knepper, No. 1 on NOW`s hit list because of his unswerving belief that women should stay home, have babies and bake cookies.
– Detroit: Not expected to be active unless somebody bites for outfielders Pat Sheridan and Gary Pettis.
– Milwaukee: Brewers concentrating efforts on re-signing infielder Jim Gantner. Could swing major deal for starting pitcher in exchange for bullpen ace Dan Plesac, but front-office boss Harry Dalton says, ”Plesac ain`t going nowhere.” Possibly going but not gone are pitchers Mike Birkbeck, Juan Nieves and Chris Bosio.
– Toronto: Pat Gillick, shrewd trader in the Gabe Paul mold, reportedly willing to retool entire starting outfield, which could mean new address for one or more of the following: George Bell, Lloyd Moseby and Jesse Barfield. Infielder Manny Lee also being offered around.
– New York Yankees: Trying to unload third baseman Mike Pagliarulo. Why?
I can`t figure. Considerable speculation that veteran outfielder Rickey Henderson is not likely to adjust to the managing style of newcomer Dallas Green. Why? I think I know. Yankees have been busy with the addition of free agent Steve Sax and righty reliever Lance McCullers, who came in Jack Clark deal with San Diego. Rick Rhoden and Richard Dotson, veteran right-handers, on the block. Why? I don`t know.
– Cleveland: Hard to believe, but Joe Carter, longtime Tribe MVP, is available for established pitcher and shortstop. Mel Hall, another ex-Cub, also available, along with infielders Julio Franco and Brook Jacoby.
– Baltimore: Will take anybody, but there is a problem. Only demand, besides Dodgers` for Eddie Murray, is for Cal Ripken, but GM Roland Hemond has classified Cal as Orioles` lone untouchable.
