On a bright and nippy morning, dozens of Solarex Corp. workers are performing a bit of alchemy. Starting with rocks of refined silicon, they manufacture photovoltaic panels-wired wafers of crystals that effortlessly convert sunlight into electricity.
These days, the future of Solarex and the rest of the American solar-energy industry would seem as sunny as the skies of this midwinter
forenoon. Worried about the environment and the nation`s thirst for imported oil, more and more people are again looking at sun power as an energy alternative.
Economics are beginning to favor the technology, too. Thanks to nearly 20 years of government-subsidized research and development, the price of photovoltaic cells has been declining steadily, making them practical in an increasingly broad range of applications.
Even President Bush has reversed course from his predecessor and wants more federal spending on solar energy. In fact, so-called renewable energies will figure prominently in the national energy strategy Bush plans to announce this week.
But a cloud hangs over the U.S. industry. Photovoltaic technology was pioneered by American scientists and long dominated by the United States. One by one, however, U.S. solar-energy firms either went under or were sold to foreigners. Solarex is the only big American-owned photovoltaic-maker left.
And Solarex may not remain all-American for long. Industry officials say the company`s parent, Chicago-based Amoco Corp., would sell Solarex tomorrow for the right price.
John Corsi, Solarex president, says Amoco ”is not actively marketing the company.” But he acknowledges that Amoco was reluctant to acquire Solarex in the first place and is trying hard to form partnerships with several foreign companies.
The decline of the home-grown solar-energy industry troubles many people, who see in it a larger failure of the United States. Once again, they assert, the nation has squandered a commanding technological edge and the promise of tomorrow for cash on the barrelhead today.
”I think it`s just another manifestation of the overall erosion of U.S. industrial and technological capability,” said Clyde Prestowitz, president of the Economic Strategy Institute in Washington and a former U.S. trade negotiator.
”I`d like to see us investing in it from a nationalistic point of view,” added Rep. Philip Sharp (D-Ind.), chairman of the House Energy and Power Subcommittee. ”Others are going to be ahead of us-Germany and Japan-if we do not promote this.”
By many measures they already are. Japan has been producing greater quantities of photovoltaic modules than the United States since the early 1980s, and last year the share of German companies also surpassed this nation as a result of Siemens AG`s purchase of Atlantic Richfield Co.`s solar-energy subsidiary.
The U.S.-owned share of the photovoltaic market, which stood at 75 percent a decade ago, is down to 15 percent today.
The Japanese and German governments have been spending more on solar research than the U.S. government, notwithstanding the Bush administration`s call to boost spending on photovoltaic programs 9.7 percent next year, to $50.8 million.
The greater subsidies not only enable foreign companies to maintain unprofitable photovoltaic ventures, but also yield new processes that will make these firms even tougher competitors in the future.
James Emming Sr., general manager of the Solarex plant in Frederick, about 45 miles northwest of Washington, estimates that in the late 1980s the United States was five or six years ahead of Japan in photovoltaic technology. Today, he says, that lead is down to a year or two.
”It`s one of the scares in the industry-other countries are seeing how bright alternative energy sources are,” Emming said.
To be sure, the photovoltaic industry remains so tiny it could disappear completely and hardly be missed.
Paul Maycock, an industry consultant in Casanova, Va., calculates that worldwide photovoltaic sales totaled no more than $650 million at the retail level last year. And he figures that equipment would generate only 46.5 megawatts of electricity-not even a tenth of the output of a typical coal-fired power plant.
Moreover, because of the enormous research and development outlays of the last 20 years and the relatively cheap price of oil, coal and other conventional fuels, no photovoltaic producer has made money, according to industry officials.
But the photovoltaic market is growing rapidly. In just the last five years sales volumes have more than doubled. Photovoltaic costs, meanwhile, have plunged 90 percent since the 1970s. Industry officials believe both trends can be maintained into the 1990s.
Photovoltaic modules are paper-thin slices of silicon crystals strung together by wires, sealed in clear plastic and mounted on a panel. The silicon cells-the same material used to make computer chips-are charged positively on one side and negatively on the other. When exposed to light, the crystals produce electricity.
Invented at Bell Laboratories in 1954, photovoltaic devices initially were used to power satellites and space stations. Their first significant down-to-Earth use came in the 1970s, when photovoltaic cells began supplanting batteries in calculators and lighted buoys.
Photovoltaic modules are increasingly found in remote locations. Hooked up to rechargeable batteries, so that equipment can run on cloudy days and at night, photovoltaic devices are powering telecommunications relays, water pumps and even homes beyond the reach of electric grids.
Industry officials say their breakthrough market will be electric utilities. Already, Pacific Gas & Electric Co. and a few other utilities are experimenting with erecting photovoltaic panels in high-growth areas instead of building expensive transmission lines.
If prices continue heading lower, industry officials say, photovoltaic modules will be competitive by the end of the 1990s in Sun Belt states, with other energy sources used to generate electricity during peak power periods.
Even if photovoltaic technology remains more costly, many people believe it will be favored because it is environmentally benign, unlike fossil fuels, which are blamed for causing smog, acid rain and global warming when burned.
There are new niche markets, too. Solarex`s Corsi talks hopefully, for instance, about installing photovoltaic panels in car roofs to power fans that would cool automobile interiors on hot, sunny days. Indeed, Solarex is talking with several European carmakers about developing such a device.
Photovoltaic technology ”is not pie in the sky,” according to J. Michael Davis, assistant energy secretary for conservation and renewable energy. ”It`s a heck of a lot closer than people think. And I think there will be major growth in these technologies in this decade.”
But many people doubt whether there will be any American-owned solar companies left to cash in on the growth. When Los Angeles-based Atlantic Richfield sold its Arco Solar subsidiary to Siemens in late 1989, U.S.-owned manufacturing capacity was halved.
Then last summer, Energy Conversion Devices Inc. formed a 50-50 partnership with Canon Inc. of Japan. Although the venture is only a fraction the size of the former Arco unit, the deal is significant because the company was founded in 1960, making it one of the industry`s pioneers.
Executives of the companies say they shouldn`t be blamed for selling to foreigners.
Stanford Ovshinksy, president of Energy Conversion Devices, says the Troy, Mich.-based company needed $50 million to increase its production capacity enough to reduce costs. The only willing investors, he says, were Japanese.
Arco had a similar experience, says company spokesman Albert Greenstein.
”We just didn`t pick Siemens out of a hat and say that`s the company we want to sell to,” he says. ”We offered to sell it to American companies;
they weren`t interested.”
The sales leave Solarex as the only substantial U.S.-owned photovoltaic manufacturer. Founded in 1973, Solarex became a wholly owned Amoco subsidiary a decade later. According to consultant Maycock, Solarex produced enough photovoltaic panels to make 5.4 megawatts of electricity last year, or 11.6 percent of the world`s output.
Solarex President Corsi says Amoco intends to hold onto the company-at least for now.
”I think Amoco`s primary interest is in retaining Solarex and benefiting from the substantial investments it has made,” he said. ”But I wouldn`t go so far as to say it wouldn`t be sold for any price.”
If that were to happen, many people contend Amoco`s gain would be the nation`s loss.
”As the technology begins to be used more and more in everyday activities, it`s just a question of whether we`ll be buying it from U.S. manufacturers or from German and Japanese and other manufacturers,” says Nicholas Lenssen, a researcher at Worldwatch Institute, a Washington policy group.
”We`ve seen a lot of other technologies, especially in electronics, that we`re now purchasing from overseas,” he says. ”This could be just one more, and it could be a very crucial technology for the future.”
